Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jarred Kelenic

matchup for Logan Webb

208th out of 436 (Best 48%)

Logan Webb

matchup for Jarred Kelenic

149th out of 567 (Best 27%)

Leans in favor of Kelenic

Jarred Kelenic has a 31.2% chance of reaching base vs Logan Webb, which is 2.1% higher than Kelenic's typical expectations, and 0.9% lower than batters facing Webb.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.2%	23.9%	3.0%	5.3%	15.6%	7.3%	27.6%
Kelenic	+2.1	+3.6	-0.1	+0.3	+3.4	-1.5	-5.1
Webb	-0.9	-0.8	+0.6	+0.1	-1.5	-0.1	+5.5

Jarred Kelenic is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Logan Webb is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Kelenic has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Logan Webb throws a Sinker 36% of the time. Jarred Kelenic has an A grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

36%

Changeup (R)

34%

Slider (R)

25%

13% of Logan Webb's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Jarred Kelenic has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 13%

+5%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 19%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Meatball 3%

-4%

47% of Logan Webb's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 34% higher than the MLB average. Jarred Kelenic has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 47%

+34%

Offspeed (R) 34%

+23%

Extreme Break 24%

+9%

Medium Fast Velo 24%

+9%

17.9% of Jarred Kelenic's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.6% higher than the league average. Logan Webb strikes out 15.0% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +5.6% -0.8% 5%

Walk -0.7% -2.4% 42%

In Play -4.9% +3.2% 39%

On Base -3.3% +1.6% 31%

Hit -2.6% +4.0% 14%

Single -1.9% +2.5% 13%

2B / 3B -1.4% +2.8% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -1.3%

32.0% of Jarred Kelenic's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.4% lower than the league average. Logan Webb induces Standard Grounders at a 44.3% rate, which is 9.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.3% +0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.4% +9.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.5% +1.1% 14%

Low Screamer -0.5% -3.8% 9%

Rising Liner -1.0% +2.9% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.5% +0.2% 3%

Likely Homer 0.0% -1.3% 1%

No Doubter +0.0% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.2% -7.2% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -1.4%

22.7% of Jarred Kelenic's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.6% lower than the league average. 27.9% of batted balls allowed by Logan Webb are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.9% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.9% -3.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.2% -1.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.9% +0.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.6% +3.6%

11.3% of Jarred Kelenic's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.2% lower than the league average. 6.6% of batted balls allowed by Logan Webb are hit at this angle, which is 4.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +1.6% +9.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.4% +0.8% 8%

1 to 6° -1.4% +1.3% 18%

7 to 18° -1.0% +2.9% 15%

19 to 28° -0.7% -2.5% 11%

29 to 38° -0.2% -4.8% 7%

39 to 50° +3.6% -2.2% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% -5.1%

Jarred Kelenic has 10 plate appearances against Logan Webb in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 10 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	10	10	3	0	1	2	4	0	0.300
Expected From Contact →			3.34	0.00	0.91	2.43			0.334

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-15	Strikeout
2024-08-15	Strikeout
2024-08-15	Single		1%	79%	20%
2024-07-04	Groundout		4%	2%	94%
2024-07-04	Single		2%	73%	24%
2024-07-04	Caught Stealing 2B
2024-07-04	Strikeout
2023-07-03	Strikeout
2023-07-03	Double		59%	37%	4%
2023-07-03	Lineout		24%	53%	24%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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