Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jarred Kelenic

matchup for Colin Rea

110th out of 436 (Best 26%)

Colin Rea

matchup for Jarred Kelenic

57th out of 564 (Best 11%)

Strong advantage for Kelenic

Jarred Kelenic has a 32.3% chance of reaching base vs Colin Rea, which is 3.2% higher than Kelenic's typical expectations, and 2.1% lower than batters facing Rea.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.3%	24.7%	3.9%	6.6%	14.2%	7.6%	25.5%
Kelenic	+3.2	+4.4	+0.8	+1.6	+1.9	-1.2	-7.1
Rea	-2.1	-2.8	+0.4	+0.2	-3.4	+0.7	+6.7

Jarred Kelenic is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Colin Rea is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Kelenic has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

Colin Rea throws a Sinker 29% of the time. Jarred Kelenic has an A grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

29%

Cutter (R)

22%

4-Seam (R)

21%

Slider (R)

13%

Splitter (R)

Curve (R)

10% of Colin Rea's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jarred Kelenic has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Meatball 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Likely Ball 19%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-1%

Chaser 4%

-2%

72% of Colin Rea's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Jarred Kelenic has a B grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (R) 72%

+18%

Medium Fast Velo 30%

+15%

Low Ride 37%

+14%

17.9% of Jarred Kelenic's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.6% higher than the league average. Colin Rea strikes out 13.4% of the batters he faces, which is 3.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +5.6% -3.1% 5%

Walk -0.7% -1.6% 42%

In Play -4.9% +4.8% 39%

On Base -3.3% +0.8% 31%

Hit -2.6% +2.5% 14%

Single -1.9% +0.5% 13%

2B / 3B -1.4% +0.8% 3%

Home Run +0.6% +1.2%

32.0% of Jarred Kelenic's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.4% lower than the league average. Colin Rea induces Standard Grounders at a 31.7% rate, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.3% +1.7% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.4% -2.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.5% -2.3% 14%

Low Screamer -0.5% +3.2% 9%

Rising Liner -1.0% +1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.5% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer 0.0% +2.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.0% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.2% -2.6% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -0.8%

22.7% of Jarred Kelenic's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.6% lower than the league average. 27.9% of batted balls allowed by Colin Rea are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.9% -4.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.9% -1.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.2% -0.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.9% +1.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.6% +3.6%

11.3% of Jarred Kelenic's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.2% lower than the league average. 15.7% of batted balls allowed by Colin Rea are hit at this angle, which is 4.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +1.6% -1.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.4% +1.8% 8%

1 to 6° -1.4% -3.1% 18%

7 to 18° -1.0% +1.2% 15%

19 to 28° -0.7% -1.5% 11%

29 to 38° -0.2% +4.2% 7%

39 to 50° +3.6% +0.5% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% -2.1%

Jarred Kelenic has 7 plate appearances against Colin Rea in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	7	6	1	0	0	1	1	1	0.167
Expected From Contact →			1.06	0.00	0.20	0.85			0.176

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-06	Single		2%	63%	35%
2024-08-06	Strikeout
2024-07-29	Groundout			11%	89%
2024-07-29	Groundout		1%	1%	98%
2024-07-29	Groundout		17%	6%	78%
2023-04-18	Walk
2023-04-18	Groundout			4%	96%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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