Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jarred Kelenic

matchup for Zack Wheeler

67th out of 436 (Best 16%)

Zack Wheeler

matchup for Jarred Kelenic

525th out of 564 (Worst 7%)

Extreme advantage for Wheeler

Jarred Kelenic has a 23.3% chance of reaching base vs Zack Wheeler, which is 5.9% lower than Kelenic's typical expectations, and 2.6% lower than batters facing Wheeler.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	23.3%	15.3%	2.5%	4.5%	8.4%	7.9%	39.8%
Kelenic	-5.9	-5.0	-0.5	-0.5	-3.9	-0.9	+7.2
Wheeler	-2.6	-2.4	+0.0	+0.0	-2.5	-0.2	+7.5

Jarred Kelenic is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Zack Wheeler is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Kelenic has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

Zack Wheeler throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. Jarred Kelenic has a B- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

42%

Slider (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

19%

Curve (R)

11%

13% of Zack Wheeler's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jarred Kelenic has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 3%

-3%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

32% of Zack Wheeler's pitches are classified as Fast Velocity, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Jarred Kelenic has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fast Velo 32%

+17%

Fastball (R) 64%

+11%

17.9% of Jarred Kelenic's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.6% higher than the league average. Zack Wheeler strikes out 21.0% of the batters he faces, which is 7.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +5.6% +7.9% 5%

Walk -0.7% -2.6% 42%

In Play -4.9% -5.3% 39%

On Base -3.3% -6.2% 31%

Hit -2.6% -3.6% 14%

Single -1.9% -1.3% 13%

2B / 3B -1.4% -1.2% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -1.0%

32.0% of Jarred Kelenic's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.4% lower than the league average. Zack Wheeler induces Standard Grounders at a 41.6% rate, which is 7.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.3% -0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.4% +7.2% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.5% -1.5% 14%

Low Screamer -0.5% +1.9% 9%

Rising Liner -1.0% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.5% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer 0.0% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter +0.0% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.2% -4.7% 3%

Pop up +1.4% +0.7%

22.7% of Jarred Kelenic's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.6% lower than the league average. 21.7% of batted balls allowed by Zack Wheeler are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.9% +5.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.9% +1.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.2% -1.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.9% -3.1% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.6% -2.6%

11.3% of Jarred Kelenic's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.2% lower than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Zack Wheeler are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +1.6% +4.4% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.4% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° -1.4% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -1.0% +0.1% 15%

19 to 28° -0.7% -0.6% 11%

29 to 38° -0.2% -1.4% 7%

39 to 50° +3.6% -0.8% 8%

Above 50° +0.6% -0.6%

Jarred Kelenic has 5 plate appearances against Zack Wheeler in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	2	0	1	1	1	0	0.400
Expected From Contact →			1.62	0.00	0.99	0.63			0.324

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-20	Strikeout
2024-08-20	Flyout		4%		95%
2024-08-20	Double		95%	3%	2%
2024-03-29	Forceout			4%	95%
2024-03-29	Single			54%	45%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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