Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Patrick Bailey

matchup for Joe Ryan

262nd out of 436 (Worst 40%)

Joe Ryan

matchup for Patrick Bailey

472nd out of 567 (Worst 17%)

Moderate advantage for Ryan

Patrick Bailey has a 27.2% chance of reaching base vs Joe Ryan, which is 4.6% lower than Bailey's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Ryan.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	27.2%	20.8%	2.0%	6.3%	12.4%	6.4%	28.5%
Bailey	-4.6	-1.4	+0.0	+1.1	-2.5	-3.2	+3.5
Ryan	+0.4	+0.6	-0.5	+1.0	+0.0	-0.2	-0.5

Patrick Bailey is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Joe Ryan is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Bailey has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Joe Ryan throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. Patrick Bailey has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

56%

Slider (R)

19%

Splitter (R)

16%

9% of Joe Ryan's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Patrick Bailey hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 9%

+3%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

Weak Challenge 5%

-3%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

49% of Joe Ryan's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 28% higher than the MLB average. Patrick Bailey has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 49%

+28%

Low Ride 39%

+16%

Medium Fast Velo 28%

+13%

Offspeed (R) 20%

+9%

14.4% of Patrick Bailey's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.4% lower than the league average. Joe Ryan strikes out 16.9% of the batters he faces, which is 4.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.4% +4.7% 4%

Walk -0.3% -3.3% 39%

In Play +0.7% -1.4% 39%

On Base +1.2% -8.0% 31%

Hit +1.5% -4.7% 14%

Single +0.9% -2.9% 13%

2B / 3B +1.5% -2.7% 3%

Home Run -1.0% +0.9%

33.1% of Patrick Bailey's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.3% lower than the league average. Joe Ryan induces Standard Grounders at a 33.7% rate, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder -1.3% -0.7% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.3% -2.8% 14%

Low Screamer +3.6% -0.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.7% -2.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.6% -0.1% 3%

Likely Homer -1.2% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.9% +0.8% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.0% +3.1% 3%

Pop up -1.4% +4.0%

24.5% of Patrick Bailey's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.2% higher than the league average. 23.2% of batted balls allowed by Joe Ryan are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.5% +5.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% -1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.6% -0.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.4% -2.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +0.2% -1.1%

8.2% of Patrick Bailey's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.2% lower than the league average. 11.8% of batted balls allowed by Joe Ryan are hit at this angle, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.3% -1.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.1% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° -0.2% -2.3% 18%

7 to 18° +0.5% -1.2% 15%

19 to 28° +7.1% -1.8% 11%

29 to 38° -3.2% +0.4% 7%

39 to 50° -0.8% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° -2.9% +6.7%

Patrick Bailey has 3 plate appearances against Joe Ryan in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.08	0.00	0.06	0.02			0.027

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-12	Strikeout
2024-07-12	Lineout		6%	2%	92%
2024-07-12	Flyout				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe