Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Isaac Paredes

matchup for Luis Severino

319th out of 436 (Worst 27%)

Luis Severino

matchup for Isaac Paredes

477th out of 567 (Worst 16%)

Leans in favor of Paredes

Isaac Paredes has a 30.9% chance of reaching base vs Luis Severino, which is 3.2% lower than Paredes's typical expectations, and 0.8% higher than batters facing Severino.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.9%	19.4%	2.1%	4.3%	13.0%	11.5%	17.0%
Paredes	-3.2	-1.4	-0.1	-0.9	-0.4	-1.8	-1.6
Severino	+0.8	-1.9	-0.4	+0.2	-1.7	+2.8	-6.3

Isaac Paredes is worse vs right-handed pitching. Luis Severino is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Paredes has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Luis Severino throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Isaac Paredes has a B- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

27%

Changeup (R)

14%

Sinker (R)

Cutter (R)

14% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Isaac Paredes has a D- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Meatball 3%

-3%

27% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Isaac Paredes has a D- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 27%

+19%

Medium Break 36%

+16%

Medium Ride 24%

+10%

10.3% of Isaac Paredes's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 7.2% lower than the league average. Luis Severino strikes out 16.2% of the batters he faces, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -7.2% +0.9% 2%

Walk +5.2% -1.1% 39%

In Play +2.0% +0.2% 39%

On Base +0.9% -0.9% 31%

Hit -4.4% +0.2% 14%

Single -2.2% +0.2% 13%

2B / 3B -1.8% +0.4% 3%

Home Run -0.4% -0.5%

29.5% of Isaac Paredes's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.9% lower than the league average. Luis Severino induces Standard Grounders at a 35.9% rate, which is 1.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -4.9% +1.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.9% -0.2% 14%

Low Screamer +3.1% +3.2% 9%

Rising Liner -2.6% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.7% -0.4% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% -1.3% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.5% -1.4% 3%

Pop up +7.9% -0.7%

12.2% of Isaac Paredes's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 12.1% lower than the league average. 23.8% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +4.0% +2.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph +4.7% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.5% -3.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% +1.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -12.1% -0.5%

13.5% of Isaac Paredes's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.8% +1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.3% +0.3% 8%

1 to 6° -3.9% -0.3% 18%

7 to 18° -1.4% +1.5% 15%

19 to 28° -0.9% -0.5% 11%

29 to 38° +2.0% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° +1.9% -0.7% 8%

Above 50° +8.5% -0.2%

Isaac Paredes has 3 plate appearances against Luis Severino in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 1 with a double and 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	1.000
Expected From Contact →			0.43	0.00	0.34	0.08			0.426

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-05	Double		34%	8%	57%
2024-05-05	Walk
2024-05-05	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe