Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Yordan Alvarez

matchup for Tarik Skubal

434th out of 436 (Worst 1%)

Tarik Skubal

matchup for Yordan Alvarez

548th out of 567 (Worst 4%)

Moderate advantage for Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez has a 29.1% chance of reaching base vs Tarik Skubal, which is 6.3% lower than Alvarez's typical expectations, and 3.8% higher than batters facing Skubal.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.1%	23.1%	4.0%	5.9%	13.2%	5.9%	18.9%
Alvarez	-6.3	-1.9	-0.6	-0.2	-1.2	-4.4	+1.8
Skubal	+3.8	+3.1	+1.8	+1.8	-0.5	+0.7	-10.8

Yordan Alvarez is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Tarik Skubal is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Alvarez has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Tarik Skubal throws a 4-seam fastball 37% of the time. Yordan Alvarez has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

37%

Slider (L)

21%

Changeup (L)

20%

Sinker (L)

16%

Kn-Curve (L)

15% of Tarik Skubal's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Yordan Alvarez has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 15%

+4%

Weak Challenge 11%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Chaser 6%

Fringe Miss 12%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-3%

16% of Tarik Skubal's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 13% higher than the MLB average. Yordan Alvarez has a D- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 16%

+13%

Medium Ride 23%

+9%

9.3% of Yordan Alvarez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 8.8% lower than the league average. Tarik Skubal strikes out 20.2% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -8.8% +6.3% 4%

Walk +1.8% -3.3% 37%

In Play +7.1% -3.0% 39%

On Base +6.8% -5.6% 31%

Hit +5.0% -2.3% 14%

Single +0.3% -1.3% 13%

2B / 3B +0.7% -1.0% 3%

Home Run +4.1% 0.0%

27.8% of Yordan Alvarez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.7% lower than the league average. Tarik Skubal induces Standard Grounders at a 37.0% rate, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.6% +0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.7% +2.6% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.1% -2.7% 14%

Low Screamer -2.2% -2.3% 9%

Rising Liner +1.7% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.6% -2.0% 3%

Likely Homer +3.5% +1.2% 1%

No Doubter +1.2% -0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.9% +2.8% 3%

Pop up -1.4% +0.6%

39.3% of Yordan Alvarez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 15.0% higher than the league average. 23.2% of batted balls allowed by Tarik Skubal are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -5.8% -1.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.8% +0.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.2% +2.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% -0.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +15.0% -1.1%

14.2% of Yordan Alvarez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.7% higher than the league average. 10.7% of batted balls allowed by Tarik Skubal are hit at this angle, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.2% 0.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.6% +1.0% 8%

1 to 6° +0.9% -0.1% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% -1.5% 15%

19 to 28° +0.9% +1.6% 11%

29 to 38° +2.7% -0.8% 7%

39 to 50° +2.2% -0.5% 8%

Above 50° -1.1% +0.4%

Yordan Alvarez has 12 plate appearances against Tarik Skubal in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 12 with 3 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	12	12	3	0	0	3	3	0	0.250
Expected From Contact →			2.15	0.00	0.12	2.03			0.179

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-10-01	Single		2%	73%	24%
2024-10-01	Groundout			4%	96%
2024-10-01	Strikeout
2024-06-14	Forceout			8%	92%
2024-06-14	Strikeout
2024-06-14	Sac Fly		2%		97%
2024-05-11	Single			21%	78%
2024-05-11	Groundout			6%	94%
2024-05-11	Groundout			4%	96%
2022-05-05	Flyout		1%	2%	97%
2022-05-05	Strikeout
2022-05-05	Single		5%	86%	9%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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