Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Yordan Alvarez

matchup for Carlos Rodon

433rd out of 436 (Worst 1%)

Carlos Rodon

matchup for Yordan Alvarez

410th out of 564 (Worst 27%)

Extreme advantage for Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez has a 34.8% chance of reaching base vs Carlos Rodon, which is 0.6% lower than Alvarez's typical expectations, and 6.2% higher than batters facing Rodon.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.8%	24.3%	5.0%	4.9%	14.4%	10.5%	23.9%
Alvarez	-0.6	-0.8	+0.4	-1.1	-0.1	+0.2	+6.8
Rodon	+6.2	+3.9	+2.1	+0.8	+0.9	+2.3	-10.4

Yordan Alvarez is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Carlos Rodon is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Alvarez has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Carlos Rodon throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. Yordan Alvarez has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

56%

Slider (L)

28%

Changeup (L)

Curve (L)

14% of Carlos Rodon's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Yordan Alvarez has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 8%

+2%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 7%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-3%

41% of Carlos Rodon's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 22% higher than the MLB average. Yordan Alvarez has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 41%

+22%

High Ride 32%

+22%

Very Fast Velo 19%

+16%

9.3% of Yordan Alvarez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 8.8% lower than the league average. Carlos Rodon strikes out 19.6% of the batters he faces, which is 5.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -8.8% +5.5% 4%

Walk +1.8% +0.2% 37%

In Play +7.1% -5.7% 39%

On Base +6.8% -2.4% 31%

Hit +5.0% -2.6% 14%

Single +0.3% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +0.7% -1.5% 3%

Home Run +4.1% +0.5%

27.8% of Yordan Alvarez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.7% lower than the league average. Carlos Rodon induces Standard Grounders at a 29.3% rate, which is 5.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.6% +0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.7% -5.1% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.1% +0.2% 14%

Low Screamer -2.2% +2.3% 9%

Rising Liner +1.7% -0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.6% -1.2% 3%

Likely Homer +3.5% +0.6% 1%

No Doubter +1.2% +1.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.9% +1.5% 3%

Pop up -1.4% +0.7%

39.3% of Yordan Alvarez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 15.0% higher than the league average. 25.7% of batted balls allowed by Carlos Rodon are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -5.8% -3.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.8% +1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.2% -0.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% +0.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +15.0% +1.4%

14.2% of Yordan Alvarez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.7% higher than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Carlos Rodon are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.2% -3.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.6% -1.2% 8%

1 to 6° +0.9% +0.3% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% -0.7% 15%

19 to 28° +0.9% +0.3% 11%

29 to 38° +2.7% -0.5% 7%

39 to 50° +2.2% +3.0% 8%

Above 50° -1.1% +1.9%

Yordan Alvarez has 10 plate appearances against Carlos Rodon in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 10 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	10	10	1	1	0	0	4	0	0.100
Expected From Contact →			1.64	0.36	0.96	0.32			0.164

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-08	Strikeout
2024-05-08	Flyout	12%	17%		71%
2024-05-08	Strikeout
2024-03-29	Lineout		38%	8%	53%
2024-03-29	Strikeout
2024-03-29	Groundout			5%	95%
2023-09-01	Hit By Pitch
2023-09-01	Strikeout
2023-08-06	Home Run	24%	40%	18%	17%
2023-08-06	Flyout				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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