Matchup Machine

Yordan Alvarez

Worst 1% of matchups for Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson

Worst 45% of matchups for Yordan Alvarez

Extreme advantage for Alvarez

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	5.8%	4.4%	14.9%	8.6%	18.7%
MLB (+/-)	+3.0	+0.2	+1.0	-1.1	-6.6
Alvarez	+0.3	-0.2	+1.2	-2.2	-2.2
Gibson	+2.5	-0.3	-0.5	+0.5	-2.8

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

5.8%

4.4%

14.9%

8.6%

18.7%

MLB (+/-)

+3.0

+0.2

+1.0

-1.1

-6.6

Alvarez

+0.3

-0.2

+1.2

-2.2

Gibson

+2.5

-0.3

-0.5

+0.5

-2.8

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	10	2	0	0	2	2	1	.200
Expected From Contact →			2.65	0.00	0.41	2.24			.265

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Groundout			34%	66%
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2021-07-24	Sac Fly		3%	44%	53%
2021-07-24	Walk
2021-07-24	Single		12%	60%	28%
2021-06-15	Single		22%	71%	7%
2021-06-15	Flyout		2%		98%
2021-06-15	Lineout		2%	2%	96%
2021-05-21	Hit By Pitch
2021-05-21	Strikeout
2021-05-21	Groundout			13%	86%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	46%	115	LHB vs RHP	12	48%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

46%

115

LHB vs RHP

48%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	44%	122	Fastball	16	56%
	29%	92	Breaking	58	27%
⭐	11%	103	Offspeed	43	17%
			------------------
⭐⭐	43%	115	Sinker	28	26%
	50%	94	Slider	58	19%
⭐⭐	48%	123	Cutter	21	18%
⭐⭐	55%	116	Changeup	38	17%
⭐⭐	44%	101	Four-Seam FB	31	12%
	41%	82	Curveball	48	8%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

44%

122

Fastball

56%

29%

Breaking

27%

⭐

11%

103

Offspeed

17%

------------------

⭐⭐

43%

115

Sinker

26%

50%

Slider

19%

⭐⭐

48%

123

Cutter

18%

⭐⭐

55%

116

Changeup

17%

⭐⭐

44%

101

Four-Seam FB

12%

41%

Curveball

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	61%	106	Bottom of zone	17	14%
⭐	69%	65	Away / Arm Side	-4	11%
⭐	67%	66	In / Glove Side	24	10%
⭐⭐	75%	116	Top of zone	21	9%
⭐	71%	87	Middle	32	4%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

61%

106

Bottom of zone

14%

⭐

69%

Away / Arm Side

-4

11%

⭐

67%

In / Glove Side

10%

⭐⭐

75%

116

Top of zone

⭐

71%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	43%	112	Below the zone	50	44%
⭐	29%	85	In / Glove Side	37	26%
⭐	32%	104	Away / Arm Side	51	24%
	29%	49	Above the zone	25	16%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

43%

112

Below the zone

44%

⭐

29%

In / Glove Side

26%

⭐

32%

104

Away / Arm Side

24%

29%

Above the zone

16%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	44%	86	Batter Ahead	2	28%
⭐	61%	97	2 Strikes	38	27%
⭐	54%	111	Batter Behind	55	26%
⭐⭐	36%	102	First Pitch	24	26%
	51%	43	3 Balls	0	8%
	69%	13	Full Count	-20	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

44%

Batter Ahead

28%

⭐

61%

2 Strikes

27%

⭐

54%

111

Batter Behind

26%

⭐⭐

36%

102

First Pitch

26%

51%

3 Balls

69%

Full Count

-20