Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Matt Wallner

matchup for Luis Castillo

109th out of 436 (Best 26%)

Luis Castillo

matchup for Matt Wallner

298th out of 567 (Worst 48%)

Moderate advantage for Castillo

Matt Wallner has a 29.6% chance of reaching base vs Luis Castillo, which is 0.7% lower than Wallner's typical expectations, and 1.2% lower than batters facing Castillo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.6%	18.7%	3.8%	4.3%	10.6%	10.9%	35.8%
Wallner	-0.7	+0.8	+0.3	-0.2	+0.6	-1.5	+0.4
Castillo	-1.2	-4.5	+0.7	-0.8	-4.4	+3.3	+11.2

Matt Wallner is much better vs right-handed pitching. Luis Castillo is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Wallner has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Luis Castillo throws a 4-seam fastball 40% of the time. Matt Wallner has a B+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

40%

Slider (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

19%

6% of Luis Castillo's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Matt Wallner hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 4%

-3%

43% of Luis Castillo's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 28% higher than the MLB average. Matt Wallner hasn't faced this type of pitch enough to assign a grade.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 43%

+28%

Very Fast Velo 29%

+21%

Medium Drop 24%

+11%

21.8% of Matt Wallner's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 12.2% higher than the league average. Luis Castillo strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 7.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Strikeout +12.2% +7.2% 3%

Walk +2.8% -1.4% 46%

In Play -15.0% -5.8% 39%

On Base -2.0% -5.8% 31%

Hit -4.8% -4.4% 14%

Single -4.1% -2.1% 13%

2B / 3B -3.7% -1.8% 3%

Home Run +3.0% -0.5%

27.1% of Matt Wallner's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.3% lower than the league average. Luis Castillo induces Standard Grounders at a 37.0% rate, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -7.3% +2.6% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.4% +0.5% 14%

Low Screamer -0.3% +0.8% 9%

Rising Liner -3.4% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.0% +0.9% 3%

Likely Homer +5.5% -0.2% 1%

No Doubter +4.2% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.8% -3.8% 3%

Pop up +6.1% 0.0%

36.0% of Matt Wallner's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.7% higher than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Luis Castillo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.3% +1.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -7.1% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -6.0% -0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.0% -3.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.7% +1.1%

8.7% of Matt Wallner's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. 11.4% of batted balls allowed by Luis Castillo are hit at this angle, which is 0.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.9% +1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% +1.9% 8%

1 to 6° -0.9% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -5.5% -1.0% 15%

19 to 28° +3.8% -1.5% 11%

29 to 38° -2.8% 0.0% 7%

39 to 50° +3.4% -1.2% 8%

Above 50° +9.5% +1.4%

Matt Wallner has 6 plate appearances against Luis Castillo in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 5 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	0	0	0	0	3	1	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.50	0.00	0.10	0.40			0.101

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-24	Flyout				100%
2023-07-24	Strikeout
2023-07-24	Strikeout
2023-07-19	Walk
2023-07-19	Groundout		10%	40%	50%
2023-07-19	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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