Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Matt Wallner

matchup for Jose Berrios

102nd out of 436 (Best 24%)

Jose Berrios

matchup for Matt Wallner

216th out of 567 (Best 39%)

Leans in favor of Wallner

Matt Wallner has a 31.9% chance of reaching base vs Jose Berrios, which is 1.5% higher than Wallner's typical expectations, and 0.5% higher than batters facing Berrios.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.9%	19.8%	3.3%	4.4%	12.0%	12.2%	32.4%
Wallner	+1.5	+1.8	-0.1	-0.1	+2.0	-0.3	-3.0
Berrios	-0.5	-5.0	+0.4	-0.8	-4.5	+4.5	+10.3

Matt Wallner is much better vs right-handed pitching. Jose Berrios is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Wallner has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Jose Berrios throws a Sinker 30% of the time. Matt Wallner hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

30%

Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

23%

Changeup (R)

16%

18% of Jose Berrios's pitches are classified as Edge Painters, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Matt Wallner has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 11%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

31% of Jose Berrios's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Matt Wallner hasn't faced this type of pitch enough to assign a grade.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 31%

+17%

Low Ride 39%

+15%

Very Slow Velo 26%

+12%

21.8% of Matt Wallner's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 12.2% higher than the league average. Jose Berrios strikes out 15.4% of the batters he faces, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Strikeout +12.2% +0.7% 3%

Walk +2.8% -0.8% 46%

In Play -15.0% +0.1% 39%

On Base -2.0% -0.3% 31%

Hit -4.8% +0.6% 14%

Single -4.1% +0.1% 13%

2B / 3B -3.7% +0.4% 3%

Home Run +3.0% +0.2%

27.1% of Matt Wallner's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.3% lower than the league average. Jose Berrios induces Standard Grounders at a 34.7% rate, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -7.3% +0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.4% -0.7% 14%

Low Screamer -0.3% -0.4% 9%

Rising Liner -3.4% +1.6% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.0% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +5.5% +0.5% 1%

No Doubter +4.2% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.8% -1.5% 3%

Pop up +6.1% -0.1%

36.0% of Matt Wallner's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.7% higher than the league average. 26.4% of batted balls allowed by Jose Berrios are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.3% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -7.1% -1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -6.0% -0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.0% -1.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.7% +2.1%

8.7% of Matt Wallner's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. 11.9% of batted balls allowed by Jose Berrios are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.9% -1.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% +0.5% 8%

1 to 6° -0.9% -0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -5.5% +1.4% 15%

19 to 28° +3.8% 0.0% 11%

29 to 38° -2.8% +0.5% 7%

39 to 50° +3.4% -0.1% 8%

Above 50° +9.5% -0.8%

Matt Wallner has 6 plate appearances against Jose Berrios in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 5 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	1	0	0	1	2	1	0.200
Expected From Contact →			0.76	0.00	0.27	0.50			0.152

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-31	Strikeout
2024-08-31	Groundout			1%	99%
2024-08-31	Strikeout
2023-10-04	Lineout		25%	5%	69%
2023-05-28	Walk
2023-05-28	Single		1%	43%	56%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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