Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Matt Wallner

matchup for Lance Lynn

165th out of 436 (Best 39%)

Lance Lynn

matchup for Matt Wallner

102nd out of 567 (Best 19%)

Moderate advantage for Wallner

Matt Wallner has a 32.9% chance of reaching base vs Lance Lynn, which is 2.6% higher than Wallner's typical expectations, and 0.1% higher than batters facing Lynn.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.9%	20.6%	3.9%	5.2%	11.4%	12.4%	29.5%
Wallner	+2.6	+2.6	+0.5	+0.7	+1.4	-0.1	-5.9
Lynn	+0.1	-3.5	+0.8	-0.6	-3.8	+3.6	+9.7

Matt Wallner is much better vs right-handed pitching. Lance Lynn is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Wallner has a D- grade vs this particular release point.

Lance Lynn throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Matt Wallner has a B+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Cutter (R)

25%

Sinker (R)

16%

Curve (R)

Changeup (R)

7% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Matt Wallner hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+0%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Non-Competitive 13%

Fringe Miss 12%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

85% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Matt Wallner has an A grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (R) 85%

+32%

Medium Fast Velo 30%

+15%

Low Ride 36%

+12%

Small Break 19%

+10%

21.8% of Matt Wallner's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 12.2% higher than the league average. Lance Lynn strikes out 15.4% of the batters he faces, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Strikeout +12.2% +1.3% 3%

Walk +2.8% -1.6% 46%

In Play -15.0% +0.3% 39%

On Base -2.0% -2.3% 31%

Hit -4.8% -0.6% 14%

Single -4.1% -0.1% 13%

2B / 3B -3.7% -0.1% 3%

Home Run +3.0% -0.4%

27.1% of Matt Wallner's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.3% lower than the league average. Lance Lynn induces Standard Grounders at a 32.0% rate, which is 2.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -7.3% -2.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.4% -1.8% 14%

Low Screamer -0.3% +2.4% 9%

Rising Liner -3.4% -0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.0% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +5.5% +0.7% 1%

No Doubter +4.2% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.8% +0.7% 3%

Pop up +6.1% +1.6%

36.0% of Matt Wallner's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.7% higher than the league average. 23.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.3% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -7.1% +1.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -6.0% -0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.0% -1.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.7% -0.4%

8.7% of Matt Wallner's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.9% -2.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% -0.3% 8%

1 to 6° -0.9% -2.7% 18%

7 to 18° -5.5% +1.7% 15%

19 to 28° +3.8% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° -2.8% -0.5% 7%

39 to 50° +3.4% +1.2% 8%

Above 50° +9.5% +2.4%

Matt Wallner has 9 plate appearances against Lance Lynn in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 8 with a home run, a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	8	1	1	0	0	5	1	0.125
Expected From Contact →			1.66	0.94	0.46	0.26			0.208

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-21	Pop Out				100%
2023-07-21	Walk
2023-07-21	Strikeout
2023-04-11	Lineout		45%	26%	29%
2023-04-11	Strikeout
2023-04-11	Strikeout
2022-09-27	Strikeout
2022-09-27	Strikeout
2022-09-27	Home Run	94%			5%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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