matchup for Luis Severino
matchup for Michael Toglia
3
Michael Toglia has a 30.0% chance of reaching base vs Luis Severino, which is 0.5% lower than Toglia's typical expectations, and 0.0% higher than batters facing Severino.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 30.0% | 18.7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 35.1% |
| Toglia | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | +0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -1.5 |
| Severino | 0.0 | -2.5 | +0.7 | +0.2 | -3.5 | +2.5 | +12.0 |
Michael Toglia is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Luis Severino is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Toglia has an A grade vs this particular release point.
Luis Severino throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Michael Toglia has an A- grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
44%
Slider (R)
27%
Changeup (R)
14%
Sinker (R)
8%
Cutter (R)
6%
14% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Michael Toglia has an A- grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Mid Challenge
14%
+3%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Strong Challenge
6%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+0%
Chaser
6%
0%
Weak Challenge
8%
0%
Likely Ball
19%
-1%
Non-Competitive
10%
-3%
Meatball
3%
-3%
27% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Michael Toglia has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Very Fast Velo
27%
+19%
Medium Break
36%
+16%
Medium Ride
24%
+10%
19.9% of Michael Toglia's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 8.9% higher than the league average. Luis Severino strikes out 16.2% of the batters he faces, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.
10%
Strikeout
+8.9%
+0.9%
3%
Walk
+3.6%
-1.1%
45%
In Play
-12.5%
+0.2%
39%
On Base
-0.2%
-1.0%
31%
Hit
-3.8%
+0.1%
14%
Single
-3.6%
+0.2%
13%
2B / 3B
-3.2%
+0.4%
3%
Home Run
+3.0%
-0.5%
28.1% of Michael Toglia's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.3% lower than the league average. Luis Severino induces Standard Grounders at a 36.5% rate, which is 2.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.8%
+0.4%
34%
Standard Grounder
-6.3%
+2.1%
7%
Hard Grounder
+0.8%
-0.4%
14%
Low Screamer
+1.1%
+3.0%
9%
Rising Liner
+0.9%
-0.6%
4%
Maybe Homer
+2.9%
-0.6%
3%
Likely Homer
+1.0%
-1.3%
1%
No Doubter
-0.3%
+0.1%
20%
Routine Flyout
+1.0%
-2.0%
3%
Pop up
-0.4%
-0.8%
30.5% of Michael Toglia's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 6.2% higher than the league average. 23.7% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-3.0%
+2.0%
21%
75 to 86 mph
+0.8%
+1.5%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-2.0%
-4.3%
19%
94 to 99 mph
-2.0%
+1.3%
24%
Above 100 mph
+6.2%
-0.6%
11.5% of Michael Toglia's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.1% higher than the league average. 10.2% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-3.7%
+2.4%
12%
-10 to 0°
0.0%
+0.2%
8%
1 to 6°
-2.0%
-0.6%
18%
7 to 18°
-0.6%
+0.9%
15%
19 to 28°
+0.7%
-0.6%
11%
29 to 38°
+0.1%
-1.3%
7%
39 to 50°
+0.9%
-0.9%
8%
Above 50°
+4.6%
-0.2%
Michael Toglia has 2 plate appearances against Luis Severino in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.55 | 0.296 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-08-06 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2024-08-06 | Fielders Choice Out | 4% | 55% | 41% | |
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
