matchup for Seth Lugo
matchup for Michael Toglia
1
Michael Toglia has a 32.3% chance of reaching base vs Seth Lugo, which is 1.7% higher than Toglia's typical expectations, and 0.2% higher than batters facing Lugo.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 32.3% | 19.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 35.0% |
| Toglia | +1.7 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | +0.5 | +1.6 | -1.6 |
| Lugo | -0.2 | -4.7 | +0.3 | -1.1 | -3.9 | +4.5 | +10.1 |
Michael Toglia is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Seth Lugo is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Toglia has an A grade vs this particular release point.
Seth Lugo throws a 4-seam fastball 29% of the time. Michael Toglia has an A- grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
29%
Curve (R)
28%
Sinker (R)
17%
Slider (R)
13%
Changeup (R)
6%
10% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Michael Toglia has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Weak Challenge
10%
+2%
Mid Challenge
12%
+1%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Strong Challenge
6%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+0%
Chaser
6%
0%
Non-Competitive
12%
-1%
Meatball
5%
-1%
Likely Ball
18%
-1%
25% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Michael Toglia has a D grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Extreme Drop
25%
+20%
Large Break
18%
+13%
Extreme Slow Velo
16%
+11%
Breaking (R)
41%
+10%
19.7% of Michael Toglia's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 8.6% higher than the league average. Seth Lugo strikes out 16.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.
11%
Strikeout
+8.6%
+0.8%
3%
Walk
+3.7%
-2.3%
45%
In Play
-12.4%
+1.4%
39%
On Base
+0.1%
-0.4%
31%
Hit
-3.6%
+1.9%
14%
Single
-3.5%
+0.7%
13%
2B / 3B
-3.1%
+1.1%
3%
Home Run
+3.0%
+0.1%
28.1% of Michael Toglia's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.3% lower than the league average. Seth Lugo induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.8%
+1.4%
34%
Standard Grounder
-6.3%
+1.9%
7%
Hard Grounder
+0.6%
-1.6%
14%
Low Screamer
+1.1%
+0.5%
9%
Rising Liner
+1.0%
-1.0%
4%
Maybe Homer
+2.9%
-0.5%
3%
Likely Homer
+1.2%
+2.1%
1%
No Doubter
-0.3%
-0.5%
20%
Routine Flyout
+0.9%
-0.1%
3%
Pop up
-0.4%
-2.2%
31.0% of Michael Toglia's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 6.7% higher than the league average. 22.7% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-3.0%
+1.3%
21%
75 to 86 mph
+0.8%
+0.9%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-2.5%
-1.4%
19%
94 to 99 mph
-2.0%
+0.8%
24%
Above 100 mph
+6.7%
-1.6%
11.4% of Michael Toglia's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.0% lower than the league average. 14.0% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-3.8%
+2.2%
12%
-10 to 0°
-0.1%
-0.2%
8%
1 to 6°
-2.2%
+1.3%
18%
7 to 18°
-0.2%
-2.0%
15%
19 to 28°
+0.8%
-1.4%
11%
29 to 38°
0.0%
+2.6%
7%
39 to 50°
+1.2%
+0.4%
8%
Above 50°
+4.4%
-2.9%
Michael Toglia has 5 plate appearances against Seth Lugo in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 5 with a strikeout.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.57 | 0.115 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-07-06 | Groundout | 13% | 87% | ||
| 2024-07-06 | Flyout | 99% | |||
| 2023-07-31 | Fielders Choice | 27% | 73% | ||
| 2023-07-31 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2023-07-31 | Groundout | 16% | 83% | ||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
