Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Michael Toglia

matchup for Kyle Gibson

258th out of 436 (Worst 41%)

Kyle Gibson

matchup for Michael Toglia

101st out of 567 (Best 19%)

Strong advantage for Toglia

Michael Toglia has a 35.4% chance of reaching base vs Kyle Gibson, which is 3.7% higher than Toglia's typical expectations, and 1.2% higher than batters facing Gibson.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	35.4%	20.7%	3.8%	4.4%	12.5%	14.7%	26.7%
Toglia	+3.7	+0.6	+0.2	+0.0	+0.4	+3.1	-8.1
Gibson	+1.2	-2.8	+1.0	-0.8	-3.0	+4.0	+7.3

Michael Toglia is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Kyle Gibson is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Toglia has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Kyle Gibson throws a Sinker 28% of the time. Michael Toglia hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

28%

Slider (R)

19%

Cutter (R)

19%

4-Seam (R)

13%

Changeup (R)

13%

Curve (R)

22% of Kyle Gibson's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Michael Toglia has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+3%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+0%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

Mid Challenge 8%

-3%

25% of Kyle Gibson's pitches are classified as Medium Velocity, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Michael Toglia has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Velo 25%

+15%

Just Gravity 26%

+12%

19.7% of Michael Toglia's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 8.6% higher than the league average. Kyle Gibson strikes out 13.7% of the batters he faces, which is 2.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

11%

Strikeout +8.6% -2.5% 3%

Walk +3.7% -0.1% 45%

In Play -12.4% +2.6% 39%

On Base +0.1% +3.0% 31%

Hit -3.6% +3.1% 14%

Single -3.5% +1.6% 13%

2B / 3B -3.1% +1.8% 3%

Home Run +3.0% -0.4%

28.1% of Michael Toglia's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.3% lower than the league average. Kyle Gibson induces Standard Grounders at a 36.9% rate, which is 2.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.8% +0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.3% +2.5% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.6% +0.4% 14%

Low Screamer +1.1% -0.5% 9%

Rising Liner +1.0% +1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.9% 0.0% 3%

Likely Homer +1.2% -0.3% 1%

No Doubter -0.3% 0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.9% -3.2% 3%

Pop up -0.4% -0.1%

31.0% of Michael Toglia's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 6.7% higher than the league average. 25.0% of batted balls allowed by Kyle Gibson are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.0% +0.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.8% +1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.5% -1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.0% -0.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +6.7% +0.7%

11.4% of Michael Toglia's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.0% lower than the league average. 9.2% of batted balls allowed by Kyle Gibson are hit at this angle, which is 2.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.8% +2.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.1% +1.1% 8%

1 to 6° -2.2% -0.6% 18%

7 to 18° -0.2% +0.4% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% +0.9% 11%

29 to 38° 0.0% -2.3% 7%

39 to 50° +1.2% -0.8% 8%

Above 50° +4.4% -1.4%

Michael Toglia has 5 plate appearances against Kyle Gibson in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 4 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	4	2	0	0	2	2	1	0.500
Expected From Contact →			1.76	0.66	0.21	0.89			0.441

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-26	Walk
2024-09-26	Single	66%	18%	6%	10%
2024-06-08	Strikeout
2024-06-08	Single		3%	83%	14%
2024-06-08	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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