Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Josh Smith

matchup for Logan Webb

268th out of 436 (Worst 39%)

Logan Webb

matchup for Josh Smith

189th out of 567 (Best 34%)

Moderate advantage for Smith

Josh Smith has a 32.3% chance of reaching base vs Logan Webb, which is 1.6% higher than Smith's typical expectations, and 0.1% higher than batters facing Webb.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.3%	25.6%	1.8%	5.9%	17.8%	6.8%	19.0%
Smith	+1.6	+3.0	-0.2	+0.4	+2.8	-1.5	-3.8
Webb	+0.1	+0.8	-0.6	+0.8	+0.6	-0.7	-3.0

Josh Smith is better vs right-handed pitching. Logan Webb is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Smith has a D- grade vs this particular release point.

Logan Webb throws a Sinker 36% of the time. Josh Smith has an A grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

36%

Changeup (R)

34%

Slider (R)

25%

13% of Logan Webb's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Josh Smith has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 13%

+5%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 19%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Meatball 3%

-4%

47% of Logan Webb's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 34% higher than the MLB average. Josh Smith has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 47%

+34%

Offspeed (R) 34%

+23%

Extreme Break 24%

+9%

Medium Fast Velo 24%

+9%

13.5% of Josh Smith's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.8% lower than the league average. Logan Webb strikes out 15.0% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -1.8% -0.8% 5%

Walk -1.2% -2.4% 38%

In Play +3.0% +3.2% 39%

On Base +1.8% +1.6% 31%

Hit +3.0% +4.0% 14%

Single +1.6% +2.5% 13%

2B / 3B +2.1% +2.8% 3%

Home Run -0.7% -1.3%

31.8% of Josh Smith's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.6% lower than the league average. Logan Webb induces Standard Grounders at a 44.3% rate, which is 9.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.7% +0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.6% +9.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.9% +1.1% 14%

Low Screamer +0.3% -3.8% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% +2.9% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.3% +0.2% 3%

Likely Homer +0.8% -1.3% 1%

No Doubter -1.1% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.3% -7.2% 3%

Pop up +0.8% -1.4%

19.6% of Josh Smith's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.7% lower than the league average. 27.9% of batted balls allowed by Logan Webb are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.0% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.2% -3.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph +3.8% -1.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.1% +0.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -4.7% +3.6%

14.0% of Josh Smith's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 6.6% of batted balls allowed by Logan Webb are hit at this angle, which is 4.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.3% +9.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.4% +0.8% 8%

1 to 6° +1.2% +1.3% 18%

7 to 18° +1.3% +2.9% 15%

19 to 28° -1.3% -2.5% 11%

29 to 38° +2.5% -4.8% 7%

39 to 50° +1.0% -2.2% 8%

Above 50° +1.1% -5.1%

Josh Smith has 6 plate appearances against Logan Webb in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 6 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.40	0.00	0.01	0.39			0.067

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-07	Groundout			5%	95%
2024-06-07	Groundout			2%	97%
2024-06-07	Groundout			27%	72%
2023-08-13	Groundout			5%	95%
2023-08-13	Strikeout
2023-08-13	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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