Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Josh Smith

matchup for Seth Lugo

153rd out of 436 (Best 36%)

Seth Lugo

matchup for Josh Smith

313th out of 567 (Worst 45%)

Leans in favor of Smith

Josh Smith has a 32.1% chance of reaching base vs Seth Lugo, which is 1.4% higher than Smith's typical expectations, and 0.3% higher than batters facing Lugo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.1%	24.7%	1.7%	5.3%	17.7%	7.5%	24.9%
Smith	+1.4	+2.1	-0.3	-0.3	+2.7	-0.8	+2.2
Lugo	-0.3	+0.7	-1.4	+0.3	+1.8	-1.0	+0.1

Josh Smith is better vs right-handed pitching. Seth Lugo is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Smith has a D- grade vs this particular release point.

Seth Lugo throws a 4-seam fastball 29% of the time. Josh Smith has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

29%

Curve (R)

28%

Sinker (R)

17%

Slider (R)

13%

Changeup (R)

10% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Josh Smith has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

25% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Josh Smith has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 25%

+20%

Large Break 18%

+13%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Breaking (R) 41%

+10%

13.5% of Josh Smith's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.8% lower than the league average. Seth Lugo strikes out 16.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -1.8% +0.8% 5%

Walk -1.2% -2.3% 38%

In Play +3.0% +1.4% 39%

On Base +1.8% -0.4% 31%

Hit +3.0% +1.9% 14%

Single +1.6% +0.7% 13%

2B / 3B +2.1% +1.1% 3%

Home Run -0.7% +0.1%

31.8% of Josh Smith's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.6% lower than the league average. Seth Lugo induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.7% +1.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.6% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.9% -1.6% 14%

Low Screamer +0.3% +0.5% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.3% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +0.8% +2.1% 1%

No Doubter -1.1% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.3% -0.1% 3%

Pop up +0.8% -2.2%

19.6% of Josh Smith's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.7% lower than the league average. 22.7% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.0% +1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.2% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +3.8% -1.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.1% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph -4.7% -1.6%

14.0% of Josh Smith's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 14.0% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%