Matchup Machine

Jake Burger

Worst 13% of matchups for Joey Lucchesi

Joey Lucchesi

Best 7% of matchups for Jake Burger

Extreme advantage for Burger

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.9%	5.0%	13.9%	10.1%	17.6%
MLB (+/-)	+1.1	+0.7	-0.1	+0.4	-7.6
Burger	+0.3	+0.4	+0.5	+1.4	-9.6
Lucchesi	+0.9	+0.5	-0.7	-0.2	-1.0

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.9%

5.0%

13.9%

10.1%

17.6%

MLB (+/-)

+1.1

+0.7

-0.1

+0.4

-7.6

Burger

+0.3

+0.4

+0.5

+1.4

-9.6

Lucchesi

+0.9

+0.5

-0.7

-0.2

-1.0

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	2	0	0	2	0	0	.333
Expected From Contact →			1.47	0.01	0.10	1.36			.244

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-27	Lineout		6%	21%	72%
2023-09-27	Single		2%	31%	67%
2023-09-27	Lineout		2%	30%	68%
2023-09-19	Hit By Pitch
2023-09-19	Single			50%	50%
2023-09-19	Groundout			3%	97%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	57%	92	RHB vs LHP	19	88%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

57%

RHB vs LHP

88%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐	56%	80	Fastball	31	70%
⭐⭐	35%	94	Breaking	15	25%
	18%	34	Offspeed	68	5%
			------------------
	55%	78	Sinker	54	46%
⭐⭐	40%	86	Curveball	8	23%
	54%	26	Cutter	77	20%	⭐
	66%	30	Changeup	63	5%
⭐	57%	78	Four-Seam FB	27	4%
⭐	58%	73	Slider	27	3%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐

56%

Fastball

70%

⭐⭐

35%

Breaking

25%

18%

Offspeed

------------------

55%

Sinker

46%

⭐⭐

40%

Curveball

23%

54%

Cutter

20%

⭐

66%

Changeup

⭐

57%

Four-Seam FB

⭐

58%

Slider

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	67%	72	Bottom of zone	38	13%
⭐	72%	69	Away / Arm Side	15	12%
⭐⭐	77%	98	Top of zone	21	10%
	73%	46	In / Glove Side	50	7%
⭐	75%	105	Middle	59	4%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

67%

Bottom of zone

13%

⭐

72%

Away / Arm Side

12%

⭐⭐

77%

Top of zone

10%

73%

In / Glove Side

⭐

75%

105

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
43%	-3	Below the zone	7	31%
48%	21	Away / Arm Side	4	29%
51%	64	Above the zone	30	28%
43%	11	In / Glove Side	50	21%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

43%

-3

Below the zone

31%

48%

Away / Arm Side

29%

51%

Above the zone

28%

43%

In / Glove Side

21%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	55%	60	Batter Ahead	21	30%
⭐⭐	45%	100	First Pitch	27	28%
⭐	60%	87	Batter Behind	33	26%
⭐	67%	92	2 Strikes	48	24%
	63%	53	3 Balls	39	9%
	78%	80	Full Count	53	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

55%

Batter Ahead

30%

⭐⭐

45%

100

First Pitch

28%

⭐

60%

Batter Behind

26%

⭐

67%

2 Strikes

24%

63%

3 Balls

78%

Full Count