matchup for Aaron Nola
matchup for Jake Burger
5
Jake Burger has a 26.8% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Nola, which is 2.8% lower than Burger's typical expectations, and 2.7% lower than batters facing Nola.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 26.8% | 22.9% | 2.6% | 6.7% | 13.6% | 4.0% | 35.5% |
| Burger | -2.8 | -1.4 | +0.0 | +1.2 | -2.6 | -1.4 | +8.7 |
| Nola | -2.7 | +0.4 | -0.3 | +0.4 | +0.4 | -3.2 | +4.6 |
Jake Burger is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Aaron Nola is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Burger has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.
Aaron Nola throws a Kn-Curve 30% of the time. Jake Burger hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
Kn-Curve (R)
30%
4-Seam (R)
30%
Sinker (R)
20%
Changeup (R)
12%
Cutter (R)
8%
8% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jake Burger has an F grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Chaser
8%
+2%
Edge Painter
19%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+1%
Mid Challenge
12%
+0%
Strong Challenge
5%
+0%
Weak Challenge
8%
0%
Likely Ball
19%
0%
Meatball
5%
-1%
Non-Competitive
9%
-4%
26% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Jake Burger has an A- grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Extreme Drop
26%
+21%
Extreme Slow Velo
23%
+18%
Large Break
22%
+18%
15.4% of Jake Burger's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.4% higher than the league average. Aaron Nola strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.
14%
Strikeout
+1.4%
+6.3%
6%
Walk
-3.3%
-2.8%
39%
In Play
+1.9%
-3.5%
39%
On Base
-1.2%
-4.8%
31%
Hit
+2.1%
-2.0%
14%
Single
-0.6%
-0.8%
13%
2B / 3B
-0.1%
-0.7%
3%
Home Run
+2.8%
-0.5%
34.8% of Jake Burger's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. Aaron Nola induces Standard Grounders at a 37.3% rate, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
+0.2%
0.0%
34%
Standard Grounder
+0.4%
+2.9%
7%
Hard Grounder
+3.1%
-0.6%
14%
Low Screamer
-2.5%
-1.5%
9%
Rising Liner
-2.6%
+0.6%
4%
Maybe Homer
0.0%
-0.4%
3%
Likely Homer
+1.9%
+0.1%
1%
No Doubter
+1.0%
+0.1%
20%
Routine Flyout
-4.3%
-0.3%
3%
Pop up
+3.0%
-0.7%
39.6% of Jake Burger's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 15.3% higher than the league average. 23.5% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-2.2%
+0.7%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-0.7%
-0.3%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-5.8%
+2.2%
19%
94 to 99 mph
-6.6%
-1.8%
24%
Above 100 mph
+15.3%
-0.8%
9.5% of Jake Burger's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.9% lower than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
+1.2%
-0.8%
12%
-10 to 0°
+1.9%
+1.8%
8%
1 to 6°
+2.1%
+0.1%
18%
7 to 18°
-5.4%
+0.9%
15%
19 to 28°
+0.6%
0.0%
11%
29 to 38°
-1.9%
-0.6%
7%
39 to 50°
-0.7%
-0.1%
8%
Above 50°
+2.4%
-1.4%
Jake Burger has 8 plate appearances against Aaron Nola in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 8 with a double and
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.250 |
| Expected From Contact → | 1.98 | 0.01 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 0.247 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-06-29 | Groundout | 4% | 96% | ||
| 2024-06-29 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2024-06-29 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2023-10-04 | Forceout | 2% | 5% | 94% | |
| 2023-10-04 | Groundout | 10% | 6% | 83% | |
| 2023-10-04 | Single | 73% | 27% | ||
| 2023-09-09 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2023-09-09 | Double | 92% | 5% | 2% | |
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
