Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Santiago Espinal

matchup for Aaron Civale

277th out of 436 (Worst 37%)

Aaron Civale

matchup for S. Espinal

478th out of 567 (Worst 16%)

Leans in favor of Espinal

Santiago Espinal has a 29.0% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Civale, which is 3.2% lower than Espinal's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Civale.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.0%	22.2%	2.5%	4.6%	15.1%	6.8%	13.2%
Espinal	-3.2	-2.3	+0.2	-0.8	-1.7	-0.9	-1.6
Civale	-0.4	+0.7	-0.7	+0.3	+1.1	-1.2	-8.2

Santiago Espinal is worse vs right-handed pitching. Aaron Civale is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Espinal has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Civale throws a Cutter 32% of the time. Santiago Espinal has an A grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

32%

Sinker (R)

21%

Curve (R)

20%

4-Seam (R)

11%

Slider (R)

10%

21% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Santiago Espinal has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

20% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Santiago Espinal has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 20%

+15%

Medium Break 24%

+15%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

8.7% of Santiago Espinal's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 9.9% lower than the league average. Aaron Civale strikes out 16.0% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -9.9% +0.4% 5%

Walk -2.3% -1.3% 35%

In Play +12.1% +1.0% 39%

On Base +7.9% -0.9% 31%

Hit +10.2% +0.5% 14%

Single +5.5% 0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +5.9% +0.3% 3%

Home Run -1.2% +0.1%

35.8% of Santiago Espinal's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.4% higher than the league average. Aaron Civale induces Standard Grounders at a 34.5% rate, which is 0.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +1.6% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.4% +0.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.6% -0.7% 14%

Low Screamer +5.6% -1.3% 9%

Rising Liner -1.3% +1.8% 4%

Maybe Homer -2.6% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -1.5% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter -1.2% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.6% -0.7% 3%

Pop up +1.0% +1.8%

11.8% of Santiago Espinal's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 12.5% lower than the league average. 25.0% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.7% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +9.3% +1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.1% +0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.5% -3.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -12.5% +0.7%

9.3% of Santiago Espinal's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 11.7% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +2.7% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.1% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° -0.3% +0.7% 18%

7 to 18° +0.5% -1.1% 15%

19 to 28° +0.3% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° -2.2% +0.2% 7%

39 to 50° -2.7% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% +1.2%

Santiago Espinal has 2 plate appearances against Aaron Civale in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.94	0.00	0.09	0.84			0.468

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-05-05	Strikeout
2022-05-05	Double		9%	84%	6%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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