Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jack Suwinski

matchup for Aaron Nola

93rd out of 436 (Best 22%)

Aaron Nola

matchup for Jack Suwinski

463rd out of 567 (Worst 19%)

Moderate advantage for Nola

Jack Suwinski has a 29.3% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Nola, which is 2.7% lower than Suwinski's typical expectations, and 0.2% higher than batters facing Nola.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.3%	18.5%	3.0%	4.7%	10.7%	10.8%	41.4%
Suwinski	-2.7	-1.3	+0.2	+0.3	-1.8	-1.5	+9.7
Nola	-0.2	-3.9	+0.1	-1.5	-2.4	+3.7	+10.6

Jack Suwinski is much better vs right-handed pitching. Aaron Nola is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Suwinski has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Nola throws a Kn-Curve 30% of the time. Jack Suwinski hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Kn-Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

30%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

12%

Cutter (R)

8% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jack Suwinski hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

26% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Jack Suwinski has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 26%

+21%

Extreme Slow Velo 23%

+18%

Large Break 22%

+18%

18.1% of Jack Suwinski's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.0% higher than the league average. Aaron Nola strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +6.0% +6.3% 3%

Walk +2.1% -2.8% 43%

In Play -8.1% -3.5% 39%

On Base -2.1% -4.8% 31%

Hit -4.3% -2.0% 14%

Single -2.9% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B -2.5% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +1.1% -0.5%

21.7% of Jack Suwinski's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 12.7% lower than the league average. Aaron Nola induces Standard Grounders at a 37.3% rate, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -12.7% +2.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +2.2% -1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -4.9% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer +3.3% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +3.1% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter +4.2% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.6% -0.4% 3%

Pop up +4.2% -0.7%

32.6% of Jack Suwinski's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 8.3% higher than the league average. 23.6% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.6% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.8% -0.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.6% +2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph -7.8% -1.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +8.3% -0.7%

22.5% of Jack Suwinski's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 11.0% higher than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -6.3% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -5.0% +1.8% 8%

1 to 6° -0.6% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -9.2% +0.8% 15%

19 to 28° +0.6% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° +11.0% -0.6% 7%

39 to 50° +3.2% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +6.4% -1.3%

Jack Suwinski has 8 plate appearances against Aaron Nola in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 8 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	8	3	0	1	2	1	0	0.375
Expected From Contact →			0.64	0.00	0.20	0.44			0.080

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-19	Double Play
2024-07-19	Single			3%	97%
2023-09-26	Single			35%	65%
2023-09-26	Flyout				99%
2023-09-26	Strikeout
2023-07-29	Flyout				100%
2023-07-29	Double		18%	2%	80%
2023-07-29	Flyout			3%	96%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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