Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Will Smith

matchup for Griffin Canning

367th out of 436 (Worst 16%)

Griffin Canning

matchup for Will Smith

238th out of 567 (Best 43%)

Strong advantage for Smith

Will Smith has a 36.2% chance of reaching base vs Griffin Canning, which is 1.3% higher than Smith's typical expectations, and 3.1% higher than batters facing Canning.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.2%	19.2%	3.0%	4.3%	11.8%	17.0%	18.8%
Smith	+1.3	-1.4	+0.1	-0.6	-0.9	+2.7	-2.5
Canning	+3.1	-2.5	+0.2	-0.6	-2.1	+5.6	-2.7

Will Smith is a bit worse vs right-handed pitching. Griffin Canning is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Smith has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Griffin Canning throws a 4-seam fastball 39% of the time. Will Smith has a D+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

39%

Slider (R)

27%

Changeup (R)

21%

Curve (R)

11%

14% of Griffin Canning's pitches are classified as Non-Competitive, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Will Smith has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Non-Competitive 14%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

Chaser 6%

Strong Challenge 5%

-1%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

38% of Griffin Canning's pitches are classified as Medium Slow Velocity, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Will Smith has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Slow Velo 38%

+24%

Offspeed (R) 21%

+9%

Medium Break 28%

+9%

11.7% of Will Smith's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.9% lower than the league average. Griffin Canning strikes out 14.3% of the batters he faces, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.9% -1.9% 3%

Walk +2.7% +0.3% 39%

In Play +2.2% +1.6% 39%

On Base -1.8% -0.8% 31%

Hit -4.5% -1.1% 14%

Single -3.4% -0.9% 13%

2B / 3B -2.6% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +1.5% +0.6%

27.8% of Will Smith's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.7% lower than the league average. Griffin Canning induces Standard Grounders at a 31.2% rate, which is 3.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.7% -3.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.6% +1.2% 14%

Low Screamer -0.8% +0.6% 9%

Rising Liner -2.2% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.1% -0.8% 3%

Likely Homer +1.1% +0.6% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% +0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +8.1% +2.3% 3%

Pop up -0.5% -0.7%

23.0% of Will Smith's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.3% lower than the league average. 25.9% of batted balls allowed by Griffin Canning are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.6% +0.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.2% -2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.0% -0.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +6.1% +1.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.3% +1.6%

16.7% of Will Smith's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 5.3% higher than the league average. 12.5% of batted balls allowed by Griffin Canning are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.3% -1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.1% -1.0% 8%

1 to 6° -2.1% 0.0% 18%

7 to 18° -1.9% -1.6% 15%

19 to 28° +1.2% -2.5% 11%

29 to 38° +5.3% +1.1% 7%

39 to 50° +2.1% +0.8% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% +4.4%

Will Smith has 2 plate appearances against Griffin Canning in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			1.05	0.00	0.26	0.79			0.525

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-07	Single		26%	66%	8%
2023-07-07	Groundout			13%	87%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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