Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Will Smith

matchup for Jose Berrios

316th out of 436 (Worst 28%)

Jose Berrios

matchup for Will Smith

343rd out of 567 (Worst 40%)

Strong advantage for Smith

Will Smith has a 33.4% chance of reaching base vs Jose Berrios, which is 1.5% lower than Smith's typical expectations, and 1.1% higher than batters facing Berrios.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.4%	22.5%	3.1%	5.2%	14.2%	11.0%	20.3%
Smith	-1.5	+1.8	+0.2	+0.3	+1.4	-3.3	-1.0
Berrios	+1.1	-2.3	+0.2	0.0	-2.4	+3.3	-1.8

Will Smith is a bit worse vs right-handed pitching. Jose Berrios is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Smith has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Jose Berrios throws a Sinker 30% of the time. Will Smith has an A+ grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

30%

Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

23%

Changeup (R)

16%

18% of Jose Berrios's pitches are classified as Edge Painters, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Will Smith has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 11%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

31% of Jose Berrios's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Will Smith has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 31%

+17%

Low Ride 39%

+15%

Very Slow Velo 26%

+12%

11.7% of Will Smith's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.9% lower than the league average. Jose Berrios strikes out 15.4% of the batters he faces, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.9% +0.7% 3%

Walk +2.7% -0.8% 39%

In Play +2.2% +0.1% 39%

On Base -1.8% -0.3% 31%

Hit -4.5% +0.6% 14%

Single -3.4% +0.1% 13%

2B / 3B -2.6% +0.4% 3%

Home Run +1.5% +0.2%

27.8% of Will Smith's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.7% lower than the league average. Jose Berrios induces Standard Grounders at a 34.7% rate, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.7% +0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.6% -0.7% 14%

Low Screamer -0.8% -0.4% 9%

Rising Liner -2.2% +1.6% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.1% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +1.1% +0.5% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +8.1% -1.5% 3%

Pop up -0.5% -0.1%

23.0% of Will Smith's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.3% lower than the league average. 26.4% of batted balls allowed by Jose Berrios are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.6% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.2% -1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.0% -0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +6.1% -1.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.3% +2.1%

16.7% of Will Smith's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 5.3% higher than the league average. 11.9% of batted balls allowed by Jose Berrios are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.3% -1.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.1% +0.5% 8%

1 to 6° -2.1% -0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -1.9% +1.4% 15%

19 to 28° +1.2% 0.0% 11%

29 to 38° +5.3% +0.5% 7%

39 to 50° +2.1% -0.1% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% -0.8%

Will Smith has 3 plate appearances against Jose Berrios in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.57	0.53	0.04	0.00			0.189

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-24	Pop Out				100%
2023-07-24	Flyout	53%	4%		44%
2023-07-24	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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