Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Will Smith

matchup for Aaron Nola

320th out of 436 (Worst 27%)

Aaron Nola

matchup for Will Smith

470th out of 567 (Worst 17%)

Leans in favor of Smith

Will Smith has a 31.6% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Nola, which is 3.2% lower than Smith's typical expectations, and 2.2% higher than batters facing Nola.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.6%	20.2%	3.2%	5.4%	11.6%	11.4%	28.0%
Smith	-3.2	-0.4	+0.3	+0.5	-1.2	-2.8	+6.8
Nola	+2.2	-2.1	+0.2	-0.8	-1.5	+4.3	-2.9

Will Smith is a bit worse vs right-handed pitching. Aaron Nola is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Smith has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Nola throws a Kn-Curve 30% of the time. Will Smith hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Kn-Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

30%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

12%

Cutter (R)

8% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Will Smith has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

26% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Will Smith has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 26%

+21%

Extreme Slow Velo 23%

+18%

Large Break 22%

+18%

11.7% of Will Smith's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.9% lower than the league average. Aaron Nola strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.9% +6.3% 3%

Walk +2.7% -2.8% 39%

In Play +2.2% -3.5% 39%

On Base -1.8% -4.8% 31%

Hit -4.5% -2.0% 14%

Single -3.4% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B -2.6% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +1.5% -0.5%

27.8% of Will Smith's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.7% lower than the league average. Aaron Nola induces Standard Grounders at a 37.3% rate, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.7% +2.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.6% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -0.8% -1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -2.2% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.1% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +1.1% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +8.1% -0.4% 3%

Pop up -0.5% -0.7%

23.0% of Will Smith's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.3% lower than the league average. 23.6% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.6% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.2% -0.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.0% +2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +6.1% -1.9% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.3% -0.7%

16.7% of Will Smith's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 5.3% higher than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.3% -0.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.1% +1.8% 8%

1 to 6° -2.1% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -1.9% +0.8% 15%

19 to 28° +1.2% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° +5.3% -0.6% 7%

39 to 50° +2.1% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% -1.3%

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	18	18	2	1	0	1	5	0	0.111
Expected From Contact →			3.28	0.59	0.78	1.91			0.182

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-05	Strikeout
2024-08-05	GIDP			13%	87%
2024-08-05	Groundout			58%	42%
2024-07-11	Strikeout
2024-07-11	Strikeout
2024-07-11	Forceout			4%	96%
2023-06-10	Lineout		38%	15%	48%
2023-06-10	Strikeout
2023-06-10	Flyout		1%		98%
2023-05-03	Flyout			3%	97%
2023-05-03	Groundout			7%	92%
2023-05-03	Lineout		1%	2%	97%
2022-05-21	Groundout			52%	48%
2022-05-21	Home Run	58%	26%		15%
2022-05-21	Strikeout
2022-05-15	Groundout			20%	80%
2022-05-15	Flyout		4%		95%
2022-05-15	Single		6%	17%	77%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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