Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Will Smith

matchup for Jon Gray

303rd out of 436 (Worst 31%)

Jon Gray

matchup for Will Smith

229th out of 567 (Best 41%)

Strong advantage for Smith

Will Smith has a 33.7% chance of reaching base vs Jon Gray, which is 1.1% lower than Smith's typical expectations, and 0.7% higher than batters facing Gray.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.7%	24.0%	3.3%	5.0%	15.8%	9.8%	13.7%
Smith	-1.1	+3.4	+0.3	+0.1	+3.0	-4.5	-7.6
Gray	+0.7	-2.4	+0.1	-0.8	-1.8	+3.1	-3.3

Will Smith is a bit worse vs right-handed pitching. Jon Gray is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Smith has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Jon Gray throws a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time. Will Smith has a D+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

47%

Slider (R)

38%

Changeup (R)

Curve (R)

11% of Jon Gray's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Will Smith has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 11%

+3%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 12%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 6%

Chaser 6%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

41% of Jon Gray's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Will Smith has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 41%

+17%

Large Break 35%

+14%

Breaking (R) 44%

+14%

Medium Slow Velo 25%

+12%

11.7% of Will Smith's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.9% lower than the league average. Jon Gray strikes out 17.9% of the batters he faces, which is 3.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.9% +3.8% 3%

Walk +2.7% -1.2% 39%

In Play +2.2% -2.6% 39%

On Base -1.8% -0.6% 31%

Hit -4.5% +0.6% 14%

Single -3.4% +0.8% 13%

2B / 3B -2.6% +0.4% 3%

Home Run +1.5% -0.6%

27.8% of Will Smith's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.7% lower than the league average. Jon Gray induces Standard Grounders at a 34.7% rate, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -6.7% +0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.6% +0.0% 14%

Low Screamer -0.8% -0.3% 9%

Rising Liner -2.2% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.1% -1.5% 3%

Likely Homer +1.1% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +8.1% +1.0% 3%

Pop up -0.5% +0.4%

23.0% of Will Smith's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.3% lower than the league average. 26.7% of batted balls allowed by Jon Gray are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.6% -0.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.2% -2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.0% +0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +6.1% +0.1% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.3% +2.4%

16.7% of Will Smith's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 5.3% higher than the league average. 9.6% of batted balls allowed by Jon Gray are hit at this angle, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.3% +1.0% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.1% -1.5% 8%

1 to 6° -2.1% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -1.9% +1.4% 15%

19 to 28° +1.2% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° +5.3% -1.9% 7%

39 to 50° +2.1% +0.8% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% -0.6%

Will Smith has 2 plate appearances against Jon Gray in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.16	0.05	0.10	0.00			0.078

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-12	Flyout	5%	10%		84%
2024-06-12	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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