Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Austin Wells

matchup for N. Cortes Jr.

286th out of 436 (Worst 35%)

Nestor Cortes Jr.

matchup for Austin Wells

138th out of 567 (Best 25%)

Moderate advantage for Wells

Austin Wells has a 31.9% chance of reaching base vs Nestor Cortes Jr., which is 1.9% higher than Wells's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Cortes Jr..

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.9%	20.9%	4.3%	5.4%	11.2%	11.0%	27.1%
Wells	+1.9	+0.5	+1.0	+0.3	-0.7	+1.3	-1.5
Cortes Jr.	+0.4	-0.9	+1.0	0.0	-1.9	+1.3	+3.2

Austin Wells is much worse vs left-handed pitching. Nestor Cortes Jr. is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Wells has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Nestor Cortes Jr. throws a 4-seam fastball 45% of the time. Austin Wells hasn't faced this pitch from left handers very often.

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

45%

Cutter (L)

24%

Slider (L)

20%

Changeup (L)

19% of Nestor Cortes Jr.'s pitches are classified as Edge Painters, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Austin Wells has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Meatball 6%

+0%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-1%

Weak Challenge 6%

-3%

72% of Nestor Cortes Jr.'s pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Austin Wells has a D- grade against this type of pitch from left handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (L) 72%

+17%

High Ride 22%

+12%

Small Break 18%

+10%

14.5% of Austin Wells's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.2% lower than the league average. Nestor Cortes Jr. strikes out 15.7% of the batters he faces, which is 0.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.2% -0.1% 3%

Walk +2.6% -0.6% 41%

In Play -2.5% +0.6% 39%

On Base -0.8% -2.1% 31%

Hit -3.4% -1.6% 14%

Single -2.8% -1.7% 13%

2B / 3B -2.4% -1.3% 3%

Home Run +1.8% +1.5%

26.3% of Austin Wells's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 8.1% lower than the league average. Nestor Cortes Jr. induces Standard Grounders at a 27.5% rate, which is 7.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +1.3% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -8.1% -7.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.8% -0.8% 14%

Low Screamer +2.2% +2.4% 9%

Rising Liner -4.0% -2.1% 4%

Maybe Homer +3.3% +0.7% 3%

Likely Homer +0.7% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter +1.8% +0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.2% +1.2% 3%

Pop up +3.3% +5.1%

26.2% of Austin Wells's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.9% higher than the league average. 24.0% of batted balls allowed by Nestor Cortes Jr. are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% +0.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.4% +2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.7% -4.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.0% +1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +1.9% -0.3%

12.2% of Austin Wells's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 13.2% of batted balls allowed by Nestor Cortes Jr. are hit at this angle, which is 1.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -5.7% -5.7% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.1% -1.9% 8%

1 to 6° +1.7% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -6.3% -4.2% 15%

19 to 28° +4.9% +1.7% 11%

29 to 38° +0.8% +1.8% 7%

39 to 50° +2.4% +3.2% 8%

Above 50° +4.3% +4.7%

Austin Wells has 2 plate appearances against Nestor Cortes Jr. in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 1 with a home run, a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1.000
Expected From Contact →			0.34	0.28	0.06	0.00			0.344

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-29	Home Run	28%	6%		66%
2025-03-29	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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