Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Austin Wells

matchup for Jordan Lyles

236th out of 436 (Worst 46%)

Jordan Lyles

matchup for Austin Wells

out of 567 (Worst %)

Strong advantage for Wells

Austin Wells has a 33.0% chance of reaching base vs Jordan Lyles, which is 3.0% higher than Wells's typical expectations, and 0.6% lower than batters facing Lyles.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.0%	22.1%	4.1%	6.0%	12.0%	10.9%	21.1%
Wells	+3.0	+1.8	+0.8	+0.9	+0.1	+1.2	-7.5
Lyles	-0.6	-2.1	+0.7	+0.2	-3.1	+1.5	+2.9

Austin Wells is much better vs right-handed pitching. Jordan Lyles is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Wells has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Jordan Lyles throws a 4-seam fastball 35% of the time. Austin Wells has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

35%

Slider (R)

23%

Curve (R)

17%

Sinker (R)

12%

Changeup (R)

10%

9% of Jordan Lyles's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Austin Wells hasn't faced this type of pitch very often.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 9%

+3%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

16% of Jordan Lyles's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 12% higher than the MLB average. Austin Wells hasn't faced this type of pitch enough to assign a grade.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 16%

+12%

Medium Velo 21%

+10%

Medium Break 28%

+9%

Breaking (R) 40%

+9%

14.5% of Austin Wells's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.2% lower than the league average. Jordan Lyles strikes out 15.7% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout -0.2% +0.8% 3%

Walk +2.6% -2.3% 41%

In Play -2.5% +1.5% 39%

On Base -0.8% -4.1% 31%

Hit -3.4% -1.7% 14%

Single -2.8% -1.0% 13%

2B / 3B -2.4% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +1.8% -0.1%

26.3% of Austin Wells's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 8.1% lower than the league average. Jordan Lyles induces Standard Grounders at a 26.4% rate, which is 8.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +1.3% +0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -8.1% -8.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.8% +1.3% 14%

Low Screamer +2.2% 0.0% 9%

Rising Liner -4.0% -1.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +3.3% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.7% +2.6% 1%

No Doubter +1.8% +0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.2% +1.8% 3%

Pop up +3.3% +3.1%

26.2% of Austin Wells's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.9% higher than the league average. 24.9% of batted balls allowed by Jordan Lyles are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.7% -2.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.4% +1.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.7% 0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.0% +0.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +1.9% +0.6%

12.2% of Austin Wells's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 11.3% of batted balls allowed by Jordan Lyles are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -5.7% -4.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.1% -1.7% 8%

1 to 6° +1.7% 0.0% 18%

7 to 18° -6.3% -2.3% 15%

19 to 28° +4.9% +1.4% 11%

29 to 38° +0.8% -0.2% 7%

39 to 50° +2.4% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° +4.3% +6.6%

Austin Wells has 3 plate appearances against Jordan Lyles in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			1.14	0.90	0.08	0.16			0.380

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-29	Flyout				100%
2023-09-29	Home Run	90%	7%		2%
2023-09-29	Groundout			15%	84%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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