Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Brandon Marsh

matchup for Ryne Nelson

265th out of 436 (Worst 39%)

Ryne Nelson

matchup for Brandon Marsh

352nd out of 567 (Worst 38%)

Leans in favor of Nelson

Brandon Marsh has a 31.1% chance of reaching base vs Ryne Nelson, which is 0.9% lower than Marsh's typical expectations, and 1.0% higher than batters facing Nelson.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.1%	23.0%	3.0%	6.2%	13.8%	8.1%	33.7%
Marsh	-0.9	+1.9	-0.2	+0.9	+1.3	-2.8	+2.7
Nelson	+1.0	-0.4	+0.2	+1.3	-2.0	+1.5	+7.6

Brandon Marsh is better vs right-handed pitching. Ryne Nelson is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Marsh has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Ryne Nelson throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. Brandon Marsh has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

56%

Cutter (R)

15%

Slider (R)

11%

Changeup (R)

11%

Curve (R)

15% of Ryne Nelson's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Brandon Marsh has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 15%

+4%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Meatball 6%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

29% of Ryne Nelson's pitches are classified as High Ride, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Brandon Marsh has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

High Ride 29%

+19%

Fastball (R) 72%

+18%

Small Break 25%

+16%

Fast Velo 29%

+14%

19.3% of Brandon Marsh's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 7.9% higher than the league average. Ryne Nelson strikes out 13.3% of the batters he faces, which is 2.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

11%

Strikeout +7.9% -2.9% 3%

Walk +2.5% -2.2% 44%

In Play -10.4% +5.1% 39%

On Base -0.2% +0.3% 31%

Hit -2.7% +2.5% 14%

Single -1.8% +1.0% 13%

2B / 3B -1.5% +1.5% 3%

Home Run +0.6% +0.1%

31.8% of Brandon Marsh's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.6% lower than the league average. Ryne Nelson induces Standard Grounders at a 35.6% rate, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.6% +1.2% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.2% -2.5% 14%

Low Screamer -3.2% +1.0% 9%

Rising Liner +3.4% +2.8% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.6% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +1.0% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.3% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% +0.8% 3%

Pop up -1.5% -0.5%

27.5% of Brandon Marsh's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.2% higher than the league average. 29.1% of batted balls allowed by Ryne Nelson are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.8% -1.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.6% -2.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.4% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.8% -2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +3.2% +4.8%

12.1% of Brandon Marsh's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% higher than the league average. 10.5% of batted balls allowed by Ryne Nelson are hit at this angle, which is 0.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% +2.5% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.2% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° +1.3% -2.6% 18%

7 to 18° +2.6% +5.0% 15%

19 to 28° +2.5% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.6% -0.9% 7%

39 to 50° -2.8% +0.6% 8%

Above 50° -2.3% -0.1%

Brandon Marsh has 6 plate appearances against Ryne Nelson in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 5 with a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	1	0	1	0	4	1	0.200
Expected From Contact →			0.67	0.40	0.27	0.01			0.134

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-09	Strikeout
2024-08-09	Strikeout
2024-08-09	Strikeout
2023-10-17	Walk
2023-06-15	Double	40%	27%		33%
2023-06-15	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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