matchup for Chris Paddack
matchup for MJ Melendez
7
MJ Melendez has a 32.7% chance of reaching base vs Chris Paddack, which is 1.5% higher than Melendez's typical expectations, and 0.8% higher than batters facing Paddack.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 32.7% | 23.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 13.9% | 9.0% | 21.9% |
| Melendez | +1.5 | +2.1 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +0.7 | -0.5 | -4.3 |
| Paddack | +0.8 | -0.5 | +1.1 | -0.4 | -1.2 | +1.3 | +1.1 |
MJ Melendez is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Chris Paddack is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Melendez has a C grade vs this particular release point.
Chris Paddack throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. MJ Melendez has a B- grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
56%
Changeup (R)
28%
Curve (R)
12%
14% of Chris Paddack's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. MJ Melendez has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Mid Challenge
14%
+3%
Strong Challenge
7%
+2%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Fringe Miss
14%
+1%
Chaser
7%
+1%
Meatball
6%
0%
Weak Challenge
6%
-2%
Likely Ball
17%
-2%
Non-Competitive
10%
-3%
42% of Chris Paddack's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. MJ Melendez has a B grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Large Break
42%
+21%
High Ride
29%
+19%
Offspeed (R)
28%
+16%
Fast Velo
25%
+10%
15.2% of MJ Melendez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.0% higher than the league average. Chris Paddack strikes out 17.6% of the batters he faces, which is 3.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.
14%
Strikeout
+1.0%
+3.4%
4%
Walk
-0.5%
-2.6%
40%
In Play
-0.5%
-0.9%
39%
On Base
-4.5%
-2.5%
31%
Hit
-4.1%
+0.1%
14%
Single
-3.1%
-0.4%
13%
2B / 3B
-2.6%
+0.0%
3%
Home Run
+1.7%
+0.5%
30.3% of MJ Melendez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.1% lower than the league average. Chris Paddack induces Standard Grounders at a 29.2% rate, which is 5.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.5%
+1.1%
34%
Standard Grounder
-4.1%
-5.2%
7%
Hard Grounder
+0.2%
+1.2%
14%
Low Screamer
-4.0%
-0.3%
9%
Rising Liner
+0.4%
+1.4%
4%
Maybe Homer
+1.9%
+1.3%
3%
Likely Homer
+1.8%
-0.6%
1%
No Doubter
-0.2%
-0.1%
20%
Routine Flyout
+3.0%
+0.6%
3%
Pop up
+1.4%
+0.5%
29.0% of MJ Melendez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.7% higher than the league average. 29.7% of batted balls allowed by Chris Paddack are hit at above 100 mph, which is 5.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-6.6%
-4.2%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-2.1%
+0.7%
18%
87 to 93 mph
+0.5%
-2.0%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+3.5%
+0.2%
24%
Above 100 mph
+4.7%
+5.4%
14.7% of MJ Melendez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.2% higher than the league average. 11.2% of batted balls allowed by Chris Paddack are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-1.3%
-2.4%
12%
-10 to 0°
-1.1%
+0.2%
8%
1 to 6°
-1.5%
-1.1%
18%
7 to 18°
-0.2%
+1.4%
15%
19 to 28°
-5.1%
+1.7%
11%
29 to 38°
+3.2%
-0.2%
7%
39 to 50°
+1.5%
+0.7%
8%
Above 50°
+4.3%
-0.2%
MJ Melendez has 2 plate appearances against Chris Paddack in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a home run and
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| Expected From Contact → | 1.50 | 0.99 | 0.08 | 0.43 | 0.749 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-05-30 | Lineout | 7% | 42% | 50% | |
| 2024-05-30 | Home Run | 99% | |||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
