Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

MJ Melendez

matchup for Shelby Miller

254th out of 436 (Worst 42%)

Shelby Miller

matchup for MJ Melendez

339th out of 567 (Worst 40%)

Leans in favor of Melendez

MJ Melendez has a 29.6% chance of reaching base vs Shelby Miller, which is 1.6% lower than Melendez's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Miller.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.6%	19.7%	4.2%	4.4%	11.1%	9.9%	26.9%
Melendez	-1.6	-1.4	+0.6	-0.2	-1.8	-0.2	+0.1
Miller	+0.4	-1.4	+0.5	-0.7	-1.3	+1.8	+2.2

MJ Melendez is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Shelby Miller is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Melendez has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Shelby Miller throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. MJ Melendez has a B- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

56%

Slider (R)

11%

Curve (R)

10%

Splitter (R)

Cutter (R)

14% of Shelby Miller's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. MJ Melendez has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Non-Competitive 14%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

Chaser 4%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-3%

27% of Shelby Miller's pitches are classified as High Ride, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. MJ Melendez has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

High Ride 27%

+16%

Medium Fast Velo 28%

+13%

Medium Break 31%

+12%

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

14.9% of MJ Melendez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. Shelby Miller strikes out 16.1% of the batters he faces, which is 0.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout +0.5% +0.3% 4%

Walk -0.1% +0.8% 40%

In Play -0.4% -1.1% 39%

On Base -4.2% -4.9% 31%

Hit -4.1% -5.7% 14%

Single -3.2% -3.1% 13%

2B / 3B -2.8% -2.8% 3%

Home Run +1.8% +0.3%

30.2% of MJ Melendez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.2% lower than the league average. Shelby Miller induces Standard Grounders at a 34.0% rate, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -4.2% -0.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.5% 0.0% 14%

Low Screamer -4.1% -2.8% 9%

Rising Liner +0.5% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.0% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +1.8% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% +0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.0% +3.5% 3%

Pop up +1.3% +1.2%

29.3% of MJ Melendez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.0% higher than the league average. 25.5% of batted balls allowed by Shelby Miller are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -6.6% -4.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.4% -1.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.5% +2.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +3.5% +2.5% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.0% +1.2%

14.8% of MJ Melendez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.3% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Shelby Miller are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.3% -0.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.9% +0.7% 8%

1 to 6° -1.4% +0.1% 18%

7 to 18° -0.2% -2.2% 15%

19 to 28° -4.9% -2.2% 11%

29 to 38° +3.3% -1.4% 7%

39 to 50° +1.4% +2.4% 8%

Above 50° +4.0% +3.6%

MJ Melendez has 1 plate appearance against Shelby Miller in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 1 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
Expected From Contact →			0.90	0.86	0.04	0.01			0.905

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-04	Home Run	86%	4%		10%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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