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Adley Rutschman

matchup for Bryce Miller

391st out of 436 (Worst 11%)

Bryce Miller

matchup for Adley Rutschman

485th out of 567 (Worst 15%)

Leans in favor of Rutschman

Adley Rutschman has a 32.3% chance of reaching base vs Bryce Miller, which is 1.8% lower than Rutschman's typical expectations, and 3.1% higher than batters facing Miller.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.3%	20.8%	2.1%	4.8%	13.9%	11.5%	21.9%
Rutschman	-1.8	-2.3	-0.1	-0.9	-1.3	+0.5	+4.5
Miller	+3.1	+0.3	-0.2	+0.4	+0.1	+2.7	-7.9

Adley Rutschman is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Bryce Miller is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Rutschman has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

Bryce Miller throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Adley Rutschman has a C+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

49%

Slider (R)

20%

Sinker (R)

13%

Splitter (R)

10%

8% of Bryce Miller's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Adley Rutschman has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

43% of Bryce Miller's pitches are classified as Fast Velocity, which is 28% higher than the MLB average. Adley Rutschman has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fast Velo 43%

+28%

High Ride 29%

+19%

Small Break 21%

+13%

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

9.3% of Adley Rutschman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 8.9% lower than the league average. Bryce Miller strikes out 15.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -8.9% +0.2% 4%

Walk +1.7% -2.5% 37%

In Play +7.2% +2.3% 39%

On Base +1.8% -3.2% 31%

Hit +0.1% -0.7% 14%

Single -0.4% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% -0.4% 3%

Home Run +0.4% +0.5%

30.1% of Adley Rutschman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.3% lower than the league average. Bryce Miller induces Standard Grounders at a 30.4% rate, which is 4.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -4.3% -4.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% +2.0% 14%

Low Screamer -0.2% -2.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% +1.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.2% +0.9% 3%

Likely Homer -1.0% -1.2% 1%

No Doubter -0.4% -1.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +4.9% +5.4% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -0.9%

20.7% of Adley Rutschman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.6% lower than the league average. 25.8% of batted balls allowed by Bryce Miller are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.3% -2.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.5% -3.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.7% -0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.1% +5.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.6% +1.5%

11.9% of Adley Rutschman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 8.9% of batted balls allowed by Bryce Miller are hit at this angle, which is 2.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.8% +0.5% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.9% -2.6% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° +0.6% +1.3% 15%

19 to 28° +1.6% -1.0% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% -2.5% 7%

39 to 50° +1.6% +2.4% 8%

Above 50° +1.5% +1.7%

Adley Rutschman has 9 plate appearances against Bryce Miller in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 8 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	8	2	0	0	2	1	1	0.250
Expected From Contact →			1.90	0.01	0.23	1.66			0.238

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-17	Flyout				100%
2024-05-17	Groundout			4%	96%
2024-05-17	Single		2%	24%	74%
2023-08-13	Flyout		6%		93%
2023-08-13	Single		13%	83%	4%
2023-08-13	Flyout				99%
2023-06-24	GIDP			55%	44%
2023-06-24	Walk
2023-06-24	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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