Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Adley Rutschman

matchup for Logan Gilbert

424th out of 436 (Worst 3%)

Logan Gilbert

matchup for Adley Rutschman

513th out of 567 (Worst 10%)

Leans in favor of Rutschman

Adley Rutschman has a 28.6% chance of reaching base vs Logan Gilbert, which is 5.4% lower than Rutschman's typical expectations, and 3.9% higher than batters facing Gilbert.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.6%	23.4%	2.9%	6.5%	14.0%	5.3%	23.9%
Rutschman	-5.4	+0.2	+0.7	+0.7	-1.2	-5.7	+6.5
Gilbert	+3.9	+3.6	+0.5	+1.4	+1.7	+0.3	-10.6

Adley Rutschman is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Logan Gilbert is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Rutschman has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

Logan Gilbert throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Adley Rutschman has a C+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

29%

Kn-Curve (R)

Splitter (R)

15% of Logan Gilbert's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Adley Rutschman has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 15%

+3%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Strong Challenge 5%

Fringe Miss 12%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-2%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

35% of Logan Gilbert's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Adley Rutschman has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 35%

+16%

Very Fast Velo 22%

+14%

High Ride 20%

+10%

Breaking (R) 41%

+10%

9.3% of Adley Rutschman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 8.9% lower than the league average. Logan Gilbert strikes out 18.2% of the batters he faces, which is 4.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -8.9% +4.3% 4%

Walk +1.7% -4.2% 37%

In Play +7.2% 0.0% 39%

On Base +1.8% -7.3% 31%

Hit +0.1% -3.1% 14%

Single -0.4% -2.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% -1.6% 3%

Home Run +0.4% +0.5%

30.1% of Adley Rutschman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.3% lower than the league average. Logan Gilbert induces Standard Grounders at a 31.3% rate, which is 3.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder -4.3% -3.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% +1.6% 14%

Low Screamer -0.2% -2.0% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% +1.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.2% -0.4% 3%

Likely Homer -1.0% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter -0.4% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +4.9% +1.1% 3%

Pop up +1.4% +0.7%

20.7% of Adley Rutschman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.6% lower than the league average. 27.3% of batted balls allowed by Logan Gilbert are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.3% -2.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.5% -3.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.7% +0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.1% +2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.6% +3.0%

11.9% of Adley Rutschman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 9.3% of batted balls allowed by Logan Gilbert are hit at this angle, which is 2.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.8% -3.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.9% +2.1% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% +1.4% 18%

7 to 18° +0.6% +0.3% 15%

19 to 28° +1.6% -1.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% -2.2% 7%

39 to 50° +1.6% +0.5% 8%

Above 50° +1.5% +2.2%

Adley Rutschman has 6 plate appearances against Logan Gilbert in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 5 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.30	0.00	0.02	0.28			0.060

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-03	Flyout		1%	4%	95%
2024-07-03	Walk
2024-07-03	Groundout			12%	88%
2023-06-23	Flyout				99%
2023-06-23	GIDP			12%	88%
2023-06-23	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe