Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Adley Rutschman

matchup for Lance Lynn

396th out of 436 (Worst 9%)

Lance Lynn

matchup for Adley Rutschman

121st out of 567 (Best 22%)

Extreme advantage for Rutschman

Adley Rutschman has a 34.8% chance of reaching base vs Lance Lynn, which is 0.7% higher than Rutschman's typical expectations, and 1.9% higher than batters facing Lynn.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.8%	24.2%	2.9%	6.9%	14.4%	10.5%	14.3%
Rutschman	+0.7	+1.1	+0.7	+1.1	-0.7	-0.4	-3.1
Lynn	+1.9	+0.1	-0.2	+1.1	-0.8	+1.8	-5.5

Adley Rutschman is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Lance Lynn is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Rutschman has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Lance Lynn throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Adley Rutschman has a C+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Cutter (R)

25%

Sinker (R)

16%

Curve (R)

Changeup (R)

7% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Adley Rutschman has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+0%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Non-Competitive 13%

Fringe Miss 12%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

85% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Adley Rutschman has a B grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (R) 85%

+32%

Medium Fast Velo 30%

+15%

Low Ride 36%

+12%

Small Break 19%

+10%

9.3% of Adley Rutschman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 8.9% lower than the league average. Lance Lynn strikes out 15.4% of the batters he faces, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -8.9% +1.3% 4%

Walk +1.7% -1.6% 37%

In Play +7.2% +0.3% 39%

On Base +1.8% -2.3% 31%

Hit +0.1% -0.6% 14%

Single -0.4% -0.1% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% -0.1% 3%

Home Run +0.4% -0.4%

30.1% of Adley Rutschman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.3% lower than the league average. Lance Lynn induces Standard Grounders at a 32.0% rate, which is 2.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -4.3% -2.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% -1.8% 14%

Low Screamer -0.2% +2.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% -0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.2% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -1.0% +0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.4% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +4.9% +0.7% 3%

Pop up +1.4% +1.6%

20.7% of Adley Rutschman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.6% lower than the league average. 23.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.3% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.5% +1.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.7% -0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.1% -1.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.6% -0.4%

11.9% of Adley Rutschman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.8% -2.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.9% -0.3% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% -2.7% 18%

7 to 18° +0.6% +1.7% 15%

19 to 28° +1.6% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% -0.5% 7%

39 to 50° +1.6% +1.2% 8%

Above 50° +1.5% +2.4%

Adley Rutschman has 6 plate appearances against Lance Lynn in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 6 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.77	0.03	0.42	0.32			0.129

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-21	Strikeout
2024-05-21	Flyout
2024-05-21	Flyout
2022-08-25	Flyout		36%	23%	41%
2022-08-25	Official Scorer Ruling Pending
2022-08-25	Groundout			9%	91%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe