Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Bryan Reynolds

matchup for Max Fried

273rd out of 436 (Worst 38%)

Max Fried

matchup for Bryan Reynolds

371st out of 567 (Worst 35%)

Leans in favor of Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds has a 32.8% chance of reaching base vs Max Fried, which is 0.4% higher than Reynolds's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Fried.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.8%	23.2%	2.7%	4.2%	16.3%	9.6%	28.0%
Reynolds	+0.4	0.0	-0.4	-1.2	+1.6	+0.4	+2.5
Fried	+0.4	+0.1	+0.6	-0.3	-0.1	+0.4	+1.5

Bryan Reynolds is worse vs left-handed pitching. Max Fried is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Reynolds has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Max Fried throws a 4-seam fastball 35% of the time. Bryan Reynolds has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

35%

Curve (L)

23%

Slider (L)

17%

Sinker (L)

13%

Changeup (L)

11%

13% of Max Fried's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Bryan Reynolds has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 13%

+4%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Meatball 1%

-4%

23% of Max Fried's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Bryan Reynolds has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 23%

+19%

Slow Lob 18%

+14%

Medium Break 20%

+11%

Breaking (L) 40%

+11%

14.7% of Bryan Reynolds's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.2% higher than the league average. Max Fried strikes out 18.3% of the batters he faces, which is 3.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout +0.2% +3.0% 5%

Walk -1.0% -1.8% 39%

In Play +0.7% -1.2% 39%

On Base +2.4% +0.3% 31%

Hit +3.4% +2.0% 14%

Single +1.0% +1.7% 13%

2B / 3B +1.3% +1.7% 3%

Home Run +1.1% -1.4%

35.2% of Bryan Reynolds's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Max Fried induces Standard Grounders at a 45.7% rate, which is 11.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.8% +11.3% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.1% +0.3% 14%

Low Screamer -1.3% -1.3% 9%

Rising Liner +0.5% +0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.5% -1.6% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% -1.3% 1%

No Doubter +0.4% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% -6.5% 3%

Pop up -2.3% -0.7%

28.7% of Bryan Reynolds's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.4% higher than the league average. 20.8% of batted balls allowed by Max Fried are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.9% +4.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% +3.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.4% -3.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph 0.0% +0.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +4.4% -3.5%

11.8% of Bryan Reynolds's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.3% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Max Fried are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +1.3% +8.9% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.0% +2.0% 8%

1 to 6° -2.2% -0.2% 18%

7 to 18° +1.9% +0.4% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% -3.5% 11%

29 to 38° +0.3% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° -0.1% -2.3% 8%

Above 50° -2.1% -3.9%

Bryan Reynolds has 12 plate appearances against Max Fried in the last 3 years. He is 4 for 12 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	12	12	4	0	0	4	1	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			2.51	0.01	0.14	2.37			0.209

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-29	Groundout			65%	35%
2024-06-29	Groundout			9%	91%
2024-06-29	Flyout		1%		98%
2023-08-09	Single		2%	85%	13%
2023-08-09	Groundout			5%	95%
2023-08-09	Groundout			5%	95%
2022-08-23	Groundout		9%	6%	85%
2022-08-23	Groundout			7%	93%
2022-08-23	Strikeout
2022-06-09	Single			31%	69%
2022-06-09	Single			4%	96%
2022-06-09	Single			20%	80%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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