Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

JJ Bleday

matchup for Logan Gilbert

403rd out of 436 (Worst 8%)

Logan Gilbert

matchup for JJ Bleday

530th out of 567 (Worst 7%)

Moderate advantage for Gilbert

JJ Bleday has a 28.1% chance of reaching base vs Logan Gilbert, which is 4.7% lower than Bleday's typical expectations, and 3.3% higher than batters facing Gilbert.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.1%	19.1%	3.6%	4.9%	10.6%	9.0%	31.5%
Bleday	-4.7	-1.6	+0.2	-0.2	-1.5	-3.1	+9.3
Gilbert	+3.3	-0.1	+0.8	+0.7	-1.7	+3.5	-5.4

JJ Bleday is better vs right-handed pitching. Logan Gilbert is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Bleday has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.

Logan Gilbert throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. JJ Bleday has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

29%

Kn-Curve (R)

Splitter (R)

14% of Logan Gilbert's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. JJ Bleday has a B+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Strong Challenge 5%

Fringe Miss 12%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

35% of Logan Gilbert's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. JJ Bleday has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 35%

+16%

Very Fast Velo 22%

+14%

High Ride 20%

+10%

Breaking (R) 41%

+10%

11.9% of JJ Bleday's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.5% lower than the league average. Logan Gilbert strikes out 18.3% of the batters he faces, which is 4.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.5% +4.3% 3%

Walk +2.3% -4.1% 39%

In Play +2.2% -0.1% 39%

On Base -1.0% -7.8% 31%

Hit -3.3% -3.7% 14%

Single -2.3% -2.2% 13%

2B / 3B -1.8% -2.0% 3%

Home Run +0.7% +0.5%

29.9% of JJ Bleday's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.5% lower than the league average. Logan Gilbert induces Standard Grounders at a 30.4% rate, which is 4.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +1.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -4.5% -4.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% +1.0% 14%

Low Screamer -1.3% -1.9% 9%

Rising Liner +0.5% +2.1% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.4% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.9% -0.8% 1%

No Doubter -0.8% -0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.1% +2.7% 3%

Pop up +2.8% +0.9%

21.3% of JJ Bleday's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.0% lower than the league average. 26.1% of batted balls allowed by Logan Gilbert are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.7% -1.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.2% -4.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.7% +1.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.5% +2.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.0% +1.8%

11.1% of JJ Bleday's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. 9.3% of batted balls allowed by Logan Gilbert are hit at this angle, which is 2.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.5% -4.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.7% +2.1% 8%

1 to 6° -0.9% +0.5% 18%

7 to 18° +0.9% +1.8% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% -1.2% 11%

29 to 38° -0.3% -2.2% 7%

39 to 50° +2.8% +0.3% 8%

Above 50° +1.9% +2.7%

JJ Bleday has 16 plate appearances against Logan Gilbert in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 15 with 2 doubles and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	16	15	2	0	2	0	2	1	0.133
Expected From Contact →			2.38	0.05	1.21	1.12			0.159

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Groundout
2025-03-27	Groundout
2025-03-27	Flyout
2024-09-29	Flyout				99%
2024-09-29	Strikeout
2024-09-02	Flyout	4%	3%		93%
2024-09-02	Double		39%	53%	7%
2024-09-02	Walk
2024-06-05	Flyout				99%
2024-06-05	Double		76%	3%	20%
2024-06-05	Strikeout
2023-05-25	Flyout				99%
2023-05-25	Pop Out			2%	98%
2023-05-25	Groundout			11%	89%
2023-05-03	Pop Out				99%
2023-05-03	Groundout			41%	58%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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