Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

JJ Bleday

matchup for Chris Paddack

375th out of 436 (Worst 14%)

Chris Paddack

matchup for JJ Bleday

208th out of 567 (Best 38%)

Strong advantage for Bleday

JJ Bleday has a 30.9% chance of reaching base vs Chris Paddack, which is 1.4% lower than Bleday's typical expectations, and 0.7% higher than batters facing Paddack.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.9%	22.3%	4.5%	5.9%	12.0%	8.6%	19.4%
Bleday	-1.4	+1.6	+0.9	+1.0	-0.3	-3.0	-2.0
Paddack	+0.7	-1.4	+1.1	+0.2	-2.7	+2.1	-2.9

JJ Bleday is better vs right-handed pitching. Chris Paddack is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Bleday has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Chris Paddack throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. JJ Bleday has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

56%

Changeup (R)

28%

Curve (R)

12%

14% of Chris Paddack's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. JJ Bleday has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Meatball 6%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

43% of Chris Paddack's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 22% higher than the MLB average. JJ Bleday has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 43%

+22%

High Ride 29%

+19%

Offspeed (R) 28%

+16%

Fast Velo 26%

+10%

11.5% of JJ Bleday's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.1% lower than the league average. Chris Paddack strikes out 17.8% of the batters he faces, which is 4.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.1% +4.3% 3%

Walk +2.5% -3.2% 38%

In Play +2.6% -1.1% 39%

On Base -0.4% -3.8% 31%

Hit -2.9% -0.6% 14%

Single -2.0% -0.5% 13%

2B / 3B -1.5% -0.1% 3%

Home Run +0.6% +0.0%

30.4% of JJ Bleday's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.0% lower than the league average. Chris Paddack induces Standard Grounders at a 29.0% rate, which is 5.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +1.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -4.0% -5.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.4% +1.6% 14%

Low Screamer -1.2% +0.1% 9%

Rising Liner +0.4% +1.6% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.3% +1.4% 3%

Likely Homer -0.9% -0.9% 1%

No Doubter -0.8% +0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.9% +0.3% 3%

Pop up +2.8% +0.3%

21.1% of JJ Bleday's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.2% lower than the league average. 30.1% of batted balls allowed by Chris Paddack are hit at above 100 mph, which is 5.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.8% -4.9% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.6% +1.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.3% -2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.5% +0.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.2% +5.8%

11.1% of JJ Bleday's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.4% lower than the league average. 11.3% of batted balls allowed by Chris Paddack are hit at this angle, which is 0.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.3% -2.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.6% +0.1% 8%

1 to 6° -0.9% -1.1% 18%

7 to 18° +0.9% +2.0% 15%

19 to 28° +0.8% +1.3% 11%

29 to 38° -0.4% -0.1% 7%

39 to 50° +2.6% +0.5% 8%

Above 50° +1.8% -0.1%

JJ Bleday has 5 plate appearances against Chris Paddack in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	0.400
Expected From Contact →			1.95	0.96	0.41	0.59			0.390

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-21	Flyout	15%	22%		63%
2024-06-21	Lineout		8%	11%	81%
2024-06-21	Single		3%	46%	50%
2024-06-16	Flyout		4%		95%
2024-06-16	Home Run	81%	3%		16%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe