Matchup Machine

Randy Arozarena

Worst 33% of matchups for P. Sandoval

Patrick Sandoval

Best 26% of matchups for Randy Arozarena

Strong advantage for Arozarena

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.3%	4.9%	13.1%	12.4%	26.1%
MLB (+/-)	+0.5	+0.6	-0.9	+2.7	+0.8
Arozarena	-0.0	+0.5	+0.3	+2.1	+0.2
Sandoval	+0.1	+0.3	-0.9	+0.6	+1.6

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.3%

4.9%

13.1%

12.4%

26.1%

MLB (+/-)

+0.5

+0.6

-0.9

+2.7

+0.8

Arozarena

-0.0

+0.5

+0.3

+2.1

+0.2

Sandoval

+0.1

+0.3

-0.9

+0.6

+1.6

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	12	10	2	1	0	1	3	2	.200
Expected From Contact →			1.84	0.97	0.06	0.82			.184

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-19	Home Run	97%			2%
2023-08-19	Field Error
2023-08-19	Single			78%	22%
2023-08-19	Lineout		3%		96%
2022-08-25	Pop Out				99%
2022-08-25	Pop Out				99%
2022-08-25	Pop Out
2022-08-25	Strikeout
2021-06-27	Walk
2021-06-27	Groundout		1%	2%	96%
2021-05-03	Walk

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	47%	26	RHB vs LHP	29	83%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

47%

RHB vs LHP

83%

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
37%	36	Breaking	39	38%
42%	55	Fastball	43	36%
11%	47	Offspeed	-9	26%
		------------------
49%	34	Slider	19	28%
50%	39	Changeup	4	26%
43%	51	Four-Seam FB	36	25%
40%	42	Sinker	63	11%
55%	9	Curveball	62	9%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

37%

Breaking

38%

42%

Fastball

36%

11%

Offspeed

-9

26%

------------------

49%

Slider

28%

50%

Changeup

26%

43%

Four-Seam FB

25%

40%

Sinker

11%

55%

Curveball

⭐

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	62%	13	Bottom of zone	41	14%
	62%	62	Away / Arm Side	50	12%
	62%	51	Top of zone	45	10%
	51%	-14	In / Glove Side	44	10%
⭐	67%	66	Middle	-10	6%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

62%

Bottom of zone

14%

62%

Away / Arm Side

12%

62%

Top of zone

10%

51%

-14

In / Glove Side

10%

⭐

67%

Middle

-10

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	46%	77	Below the zone	42	37%
⭐⭐	37%	80	Away / Arm Side	13	28%
	23%	54	Above the zone	28	21%
	40%	27	In / Glove Side	52	21%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

46%

Below the zone

37%

⭐⭐

37%

Away / Arm Side

28%

23%

Above the zone

21%

40%

In / Glove Side

21%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
64%	43	2 Strikes	3	29%
55%	39	Batter Behind	21	29%
46%	42	Batter Ahead	26	28%
30%	24	First Pitch	75	25%	⭐
61%	47	3 Balls	35	8%
72%	57	Full Count	5	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

64%

2 Strikes

29%

55%

Batter Behind

29%

46%

Batter Ahead

28%

30%

First Pitch

25%

⭐

61%

3 Balls

72%

Full Count