Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Randy Arozarena

matchup for Luis Severino

390th out of 436 (Worst 11%)

Luis Severino

matchup for Randy Arozarena

186th out of 567 (Best 34%)

Strong advantage for Arozarena

Randy Arozarena has a 34.3% chance of reaching base vs Luis Severino, which is 1.0% higher than Arozarena's typical expectations, and 3.2% higher than batters facing Severino.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.3%	19.9%	4.1%	4.0%	11.7%	14.5%	26.2%
Arozarena	+1.0	+0.3	+1.1	-0.4	-0.5	+0.7	-2.3
Severino	+3.2	-1.6	+1.4	-0.3	-2.7	+4.9	+1.5

Randy Arozarena is worse vs right-handed pitching. Luis Severino is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Arozarena has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

Luis Severino throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Randy Arozarena has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

27%

Changeup (R)

14%

Sinker (R)

Cutter (R)

14% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Randy Arozarena has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Meatball 3%

-3%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

27% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Randy Arozarena has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 27%

+19%

Medium Break 36%

+16%

Medium Ride 24%

+10%

16.4% of Randy Arozarena's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.1% higher than the league average. Luis Severino strikes out 16.4% of the batters he faces, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +3.1% +0.9% 2%

Walk +4.4% -1.0% 43%

In Play -7.5% +0.1% 39%

On Base -0.7% -1.3% 31%

Hit -5.1% -0.3% 14%

Single -3.5% +0.2% 13%

2B / 3B -3.2% +0.0% 3%

Home Run +1.6% -0.5%

37.6% of Randy Arozarena's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.2% higher than the league average. Luis Severino induces Standard Grounders at a 35.7% rate, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.0% +0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +3.2% +1.3% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.9% 0.0% 14%

Low Screamer -1.9% +3.2% 9%

Rising Liner +0.3% -0.1% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.4% -0.2% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.5% -0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.6% -1.9% 3%

Pop up +1.2% -0.9%

29.6% of Randy Arozarena's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.3% higher than the league average. 23.8% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -0.6% +1.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.2% +0.7% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -3.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.4% +2.1% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.3% -0.5%

10.3% of Randy Arozarena's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% lower than the league average. 10.4% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +6.0% +1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.9% +0.2% 8%

1 to 6° -1.1% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -2.1% +1.7% 15%

19 to 28° -2.0% -0.6% 11%

29 to 38° -1.1% -1.1% 7%

39 to 50° -1.5% -1.2% 8%

Above 50° +0.8% -0.5%

Randy Arozarena has 9 plate appearances against Luis Severino in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 7 with 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	7	1	0	0	1	4	2	0.143
Expected From Contact →			0.11	0.00	0.01	0.10			0.016

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Strikeout
2025-03-27	Walk
2025-03-27	Lineout
2024-08-11	Walk
2024-08-11	Single			5%	95%
2024-08-11	Strikeout
2024-05-05	Forceout		1%	5%	94%
2024-05-05	Strikeout
2024-05-05	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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