Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

matchup for Martin Perez

369th out of 436 (Worst 16%)

Martin Perez

matchup for L. Gurriel Jr.

34th out of 567 (Best 7%)

Extreme advantage for Gurriel Jr.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has a 35.5% chance of reaching base vs Martin Perez, which is 4.8% higher than Gurriel Jr.'s typical expectations, and 0.9% higher than batters facing Perez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	35.5%	28.9%	3.3%	5.3%	20.3%	6.6%	13.2%
Gurriel Jr.	+4.8	+4.4	+0.5	-0.1	+4.1	+0.4	-5.5
Perez	+0.9	+3.6	+0.2	0.0	+3.4	-2.7	-5.2

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is slightly better vs left-handed pitching. Martin Perez is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Gurriel Jr. has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Martin Perez throws a Sinker 34% of the time. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has an A grade against left-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (L)

34%

Changeup (L)

25%

Cutter (L)

25%

4-Seam (L)

Curve (L)

22% of Martin Perez's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Fringe Miss 15%

+2%

Weak Challenge 9%

+0%

Meatball 6%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

62% of Martin Perez's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 38% higher than the MLB average. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 62%

+38%

Extreme Break 34%

+19%

Offspeed (L) 25%

+13%

Fastball (L) 67%

+12%

Medium Velo 24%

+10%

10.4% of Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 7.0% lower than the league average. Martin Perez strikes out 11.9% of the batters he faces, which is 6.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -7.0% -6.1% 5%

Walk -2.9% -0.3% 36%

In Play +10.0% +6.4% 39%

On Base +4.1% +5.9% 31%

Hit +7.0% +6.3% 14%

Single +3.0% +3.5% 13%

2B / 3B +3.4% +3.3% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -0.6%

32.9% of Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.5% lower than the league average. Martin Perez induces Standard Grounders at a 38.9% rate, which is 4.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -1.5% +4.5% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.6% +0.3% 14%

Low Screamer +0.6% +0.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.8% +0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.5% -0.6% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter +0.2% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.9% -3.7% 3%

Pop up -0.2% -0.9%

25.9% of Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. 25.2% of batted balls allowed by Martin Perez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.6% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.4% +2.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.1% -1.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +3.2% -2.8% 24%

Above 100 mph +1.6% +0.9%

10.1% of Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.3% lower than the league average. 10.3% of batted balls allowed by Martin Perez are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.5% +2.9% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.3% +1.3% 8%

1 to 6° -0.3% +0.6% 18%

7 to 18° +0.9% +0.2% 15%

19 to 28° +1.6% -1.4% 11%

29 to 38° -1.3% -1.1% 7%

39 to 50° +0.2% -0.3% 8%

Above 50° -1.0% -2.1%

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has 3 plate appearances against Martin Perez in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 3.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	2	0	0	2	0	0	0.667
Expected From Contact →			1.83	0.00	0.03	1.79			0.609

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-29	Single		2%	95%	3%
2024-09-29	Lineout			2%	97%
2023-10-28	Single

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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