Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Dylan Carlson

matchup for Jared Jones

106th out of 436 (Best 25%)

Jared Jones

matchup for Dylan Carlson

354th out of 567 (Worst 38%)

Moderate advantage for Jones

Dylan Carlson has a 29.5% chance of reaching base vs Jared Jones, which is 0.5% higher than Carlson's typical expectations, and 1.5% lower than batters facing Jones.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.5%	18.9%	2.2%	4.4%	12.3%	10.7%	32.0%
Carlson	-0.5	-1.0	+0.2	-0.2	-0.9	+0.5	+2.7
Jones	-1.5	-1.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	+0.4	+3.5

Dylan Carlson is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Jared Jones is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Carlson has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Jared Jones throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Dylan Carlson has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

49%

Slider (R)

35%

Curve (R)

Changeup (R)

17% of Jared Jones's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 6% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 17%

+6%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Fringe Miss 11%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-4%

36% of Jared Jones's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 36%

+16%

Extreme Fast Velo 18%

+15%

Breaking (R) 44%

+13%

High Ride 22%

+11%

15.6% of Dylan Carlson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. Jared Jones strikes out 15.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +1.6% +0.4% 4%

Walk +1.4% +0.6% 41%

In Play -3.0% -1.1% 39%

On Base -0.4% -0.1% 31%

Hit -1.9% -0.8% 14%

Single -0.7% -1.1% 13%

2B / 3B 0.0% -0.5% 3%

Home Run -1.2% +0.9%

30.5% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. Jared Jones induces Standard Grounders at a 30.0% rate, which is 4.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.9% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.9% -4.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.1% +0.4% 14%

Low Screamer +3.1% -2.4% 9%

Rising Liner -1.5% +1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.2% +1.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.6% +1.5% 3%

Pop up +0.5% +2.5%

13.2% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.1% lower than the league average. 24.7% of batted balls allowed by Jared Jones are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.0% +1.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +4.1% -4.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +3.7% -2.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +4.2% +5.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -11.1% +0.4%

13.6% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. 8.9% of batted balls allowed by Jared Jones are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%