Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Dylan Carlson

matchup for S. Woods Rich.

80th out of 436 (Best 19%)

Simeon Woods Rich.

matchup for Dylan Carlson

123rd out of 567 (Best 23%)

Leans in favor of Carlson

Dylan Carlson has a 33.2% chance of reaching base vs Simeon Woods Rich., which is 3.1% higher than Carlson's typical expectations, and 0.9% lower than batters facing Woods Rich..

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.2%	21.2%	2.3%	4.4%	14.4%	12.0%	25.1%
Carlson	+3.1	+1.3	+0.3	-0.2	+1.2	+1.8	-4.3
Woods Rich.	-0.9	-3.3	-1.0	-0.7	-1.6	+2.5	+3.3

Dylan Carlson is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Simeon Woods Rich. is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Carlson has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

Simeon Woods Rich. throws a 4-seam fastball 40% of the time. Dylan Carlson has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

40%

Slider (R)

30%

Changeup (R)

20%

Curve (R)

8% of Simeon Woods Rich.'s pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 8%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Chaser 6%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Weak Challenge 8%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

21% of Simeon Woods Rich.'s pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 11% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 21%

+11%

High Ride 20%

+10%

Offspeed (R) 20%

+8%

Breaking (R) 39%

+8%

15.6% of Dylan Carlson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. Simeon Woods Rich. strikes out 13.3% of the batters he faces, which is 3.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +1.6% -3.3% 4%

Walk +1.4% +1.1% 41%

In Play -3.0% +2.2% 39%

On Base -0.4% +4.2% 31%

Hit -1.9% +3.1% 14%

Single -0.7% +0.8% 13%

2B / 3B 0.0% +1.3% 3%

Home Run -1.2% +1.0%

30.5% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. Simeon Woods Rich. induces Standard Grounders at a 33.3% rate, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.9% -0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.9% -1.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.1% -2.9% 14%

Low Screamer +3.1% +0.3% 9%

Rising Liner -1.5% -2.4% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.2% +1.7% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% +0.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% +0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.6% +2.1% 3%

Pop up +0.5% +2.4%

13.2% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.1% lower than the league average. 17.3% of batted balls allowed by Simeon Woods Rich. are hit at above 100 mph, which is 7.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.0% -1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +4.1% -1.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph +3.7% +3.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +4.2% +6.4% 24%

Above 100 mph -11.1% -7.0%

13.6% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. 12.3% of batted balls allowed by Simeon Woods Rich. are hit at this angle, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.9% -6.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% +0.1% 8%

1 to 6° -3.6% -3.0% 18%

7 to 18° -0.5% +0.7% 15%

19 to 28° +1.1% +2.3% 11%

29 to 38° +2.1% +0.9% 7%

39 to 50° +1.0% +2.9% 8%

Above 50° +3.1% +2.3%

Dylan Carlson has 2 plate appearances against Simeon Woods Rich. in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 1 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1.000
Expected From Contact →			0.79	0.00	0.14	0.65			0.793

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-02	Walk
2024-09-02	Single		14%	65%	21%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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