Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Dylan Carlson

matchup for Zack Littell

38th out of 436 (Best 9%)

Zack Littell

matchup for Dylan Carlson

482nd out of 567 (Worst 15%)

Strong advantage for Littell

Dylan Carlson has a 25.4% chance of reaching base vs Zack Littell, which is 4.6% lower than Carlson's typical expectations, and 2.0% lower than batters facing Littell.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	25.4%	18.9%	1.8%	4.3%	12.8%	6.6%	29.7%
Carlson	-4.6	-1.0	-0.2	-0.3	-0.5	-3.6	+0.3
Littell	-2.0	-2.9	-1.1	-1.1	-0.7	+0.9	+6.2

Dylan Carlson is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Zack Littell is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Carlson has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

Zack Littell throws a Slider 38% of the time. Dylan Carlson has an F grade against right-handed Sliders

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Slider (R)

38%

4-Seam (R)

37%

Splitter (R)

15%

Sinker (R)

8% of Zack Littell's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 8%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

+0%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

38% of Zack Littell's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 38%

+19%

Just Gravity 26%

+12%

Breaking (R) 39%

+8%

15.6% of Dylan Carlson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. Zack Littell strikes out 15.1% of the batters he faces, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +1.6% -0.6% 4%

Walk +1.4% -3.4% 41%

In Play -3.0% +4.0% 39%

On Base -0.4% -1.9% 31%

Hit -1.9% +1.5% 14%

Single -0.7% +0.4% 13%

2B / 3B 0.0% +0.5% 3%

Home Run -1.2% +0.6%

30.5% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. Zack Littell induces Standard Grounders at a 29.7% rate, which is 4.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.9% +0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.9% -4.7% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.1% -0.9% 14%

Low Screamer +3.1% -0.2% 9%

Rising Liner -1.5% +1.5% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.2% +2.0% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% +0.4% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.6% -0.2% 3%

Pop up +0.5% +2.4%

13.2% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.1% lower than the league average. 28.2% of batted balls allowed by Zack Littell are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.0% -1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +4.1% +0.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph +3.7% -0.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph +4.2% -2.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -11.1% +3.9%

13.6% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. 12.6% of batted balls allowed by Zack Littell are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.9% -3.5% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% -1.2% 8%

1 to 6° -3.6% -1.2% 18%

7 to 18° -0.5% +1.8% 15%

19 to 28° +1.1% -2.5% 11%

29 to 38° +2.1% +1.1% 7%

39 to 50° +1.0% +0.9% 8%

Above 50° +3.1% +4.5%

Dylan Carlson has 4 plate appearances against Zack Littell in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 4 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
Expected From Contact →			1.52	1.00	0.30	0.22			0.379

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-05-15	Groundout			20%	80%
2022-05-13	Flyout	1%	29%	2%	68%
2022-05-07	Home Run	99%
2022-05-05	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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