Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Dylan Carlson

matchup for John Means

127th out of 436 (Best 30%)

John Means

matchup for Dylan Carlson

114th out of 567 (Best 21%)

Moderate advantage for Carlson

Dylan Carlson has a 30.1% chance of reaching base vs John Means, which is 0.1% higher than Carlson's typical expectations, and 0.8% lower than batters facing Means.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.1%	22.9%	3.2%	6.2%	13.6%	7.2%	24.2%
Carlson	+0.1	+3.1	+1.2	+1.6	+0.3	-3.0	-5.2
Means	-0.8	-1.1	-0.2	-0.4	-0.6	+0.3	+3.3

Dylan Carlson is slightly better vs left-handed pitching. John Means is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Carlson has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

John Means throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Dylan Carlson has a C- grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

49%

Changeup (L)

28%

Slider (L)

12%

Curve (L)

11%

9% of John Means's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 9%

+4%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 3%

-6%

31% of John Means's pitches are classified as Extreme Ride, which is 27% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson hasn't faced this type of pitch enough to assign a grade.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Ride 31%

+27%

Medium Break 40%

+21%

Offspeed (L) 28%

+15%

Medium Fast Velo 24%

+9%

15.6% of Dylan Carlson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. John Means strikes out 14.7% of the batters he faces, which is 0.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +1.6% -0.2% 4%

Walk +1.4% -2.7% 41%

In Play -3.0% +2.9% 39%

On Base -0.4% -4.8% 31%

Hit -1.9% -2.0% 14%

Single -0.7% -1.5% 13%

2B / 3B 0.0% -1.1% 3%

Home Run -1.2% +0.5%

30.5% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. John Means induces Standard Grounders at a 23.3% rate, which is 11.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.9% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.9% -11.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.1% -1.7% 14%

Low Screamer +3.1% +0.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.5% +0.6% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.2% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% 0.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% +0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.6% +5.9% 3%

Pop up +0.5% +4.8%

13.2% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.1% lower than the league average. 26.7% of batted balls allowed by John Means are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.0% -0.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph +4.1% +1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph +3.7% -3.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +4.2% +0.4% 24%

Above 100 mph -11.1% +2.4%

13.6% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. 12.5% of batted balls allowed by John Means are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.9% -7.7% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% -4.7% 8%

1 to 6° -3.6% +0.1% 18%

7 to 18° -0.5% -0.2% 15%

19 to 28° +1.1% +1.1% 11%

29 to 38° +2.1% +1.0% 7%

39 to 50° +1.0% +1.8% 8%

Above 50° +3.1% +8.6%

Dylan Carlson has 1 plate appearance against John Means in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 0 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-22	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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