Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Dylan Carlson

matchup for Austin Gomber

60th out of 436 (Best 15%)

Austin Gomber

matchup for Dylan Carlson

140th out of 567 (Best 26%)

Leans in favor of Carlson

Dylan Carlson has a 30.9% chance of reaching base vs Austin Gomber, which is 0.9% higher than Carlson's typical expectations, and 0.8% lower than batters facing Gomber.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.9%	23.3%	2.3%	5.9%	15.1%	7.6%	23.1%
Carlson	+0.9	+3.5	+0.3	+1.3	+1.9	-2.6	-6.3
Gomber	-0.8	-2.6	-1.1	-0.7	-0.8	+1.8	+5.3

Dylan Carlson is slightly better vs left-handed pitching. Austin Gomber is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Carlson has a D- grade vs this particular release point.

Austin Gomber throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. Dylan Carlson has a C- grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

42%

Slider (L)

21%

Kn-Curve (L)

18%

Changeup (L)

18%

9% of Austin Gomber's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 9%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 11%

Weak Challenge 9%

Likely Ball 19%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Chaser 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

42% of Austin Gomber's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 42%

+23%

Extreme Drop 16%

+11%

Breaking (L) 40%

+10%

15.6% of Dylan Carlson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. Austin Gomber strikes out 13.7% of the batters he faces, which is 3.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +1.6% -3.3% 4%

Walk +1.4% -2.5% 41%

In Play -3.0% +5.9% 39%

On Base -0.4% +0.6% 31%

Hit -1.9% +3.1% 14%

Single -0.7% +1.2% 13%

2B / 3B 0.0% +1.6% 3%

Home Run -1.2% +0.3%

30.5% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. Austin Gomber induces Standard Grounders at a 32.5% rate, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.9% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.9% -1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.1% +0.7% 14%

Low Screamer +3.1% +1.5% 9%

Rising Liner -1.5% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.2% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.6% +1.5% 3%

Pop up +0.5% -1.6%

13.2% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.1% lower than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Austin Gomber are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.0% -1.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph +4.1% +1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +3.7% -1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +4.2% +4.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -11.1% -2.8%

13.6% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. 12.1% of batted balls allowed by Austin Gomber are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.9% -0.7% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° -3.6% -0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -0.5% -0.5% 15%

19 to 28° +1.1% +1.8% 11%

29 to 38° +2.1% +0.6% 7%

39 to 50° +1.0% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° +3.1% -0.8%

Dylan Carlson has 8 plate appearances against Austin Gomber in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 8 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	8	2	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
Expected From Contact →			2.60	0.00	1.06	1.54			0.325

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-07	Lineout		14%	2%	84%
2024-06-07	Groundout			48%	52%
2023-08-06	Pop Out			3%	97%
2023-08-06	Double		89%	10%	1%
2023-08-06	Flyout		1%		99%
2022-08-18	Single			66%	34%
2022-08-10	Groundout			20%	79%
2022-08-10	Groundout			5%	95%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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