Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Dylan Carlson

matchup for Yusei Kikuchi

126th out of 436 (Best 30%)

Yusei Kikuchi

matchup for Dylan Carlson

485th out of 567 (Worst 15%)

Strong advantage for Kikuchi

Dylan Carlson has a 25.3% chance of reaching base vs Yusei Kikuchi, which is 4.7% lower than Carlson's typical expectations, and 1.3% lower than batters facing Kikuchi.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	25.3%	19.3%	2.2%	4.3%	12.8%	6.0%	33.9%
Carlson	-4.7	-0.6	+0.3	-0.3	-0.5	-4.2	+4.5
Kikuchi	-1.3	-1.3	-0.5	-0.5	-0.3	+0.0	+4.3

Dylan Carlson is slightly better vs left-handed pitching. Yusei Kikuchi is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Carlson has a D- grade vs this particular release point.

Yusei Kikuchi throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Dylan Carlson has a C- grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

44%

Slider (L)

24%

Changeup (L)

11%

Curve (L)

11%

Cutter (L)

7% of Yusei Kikuchi's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-2%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

28% of Yusei Kikuchi's pitches are classified as Fast Velocity, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson has a D- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fast Velo 28%

+18%

Minimal Break 18%

+8%

Medium Ride 22%

+8%

15.6% of Dylan Carlson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. Yusei Kikuchi strikes out 18.3% of the batters he faces, which is 4.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +1.6% +4.3% 4%

Walk +1.4% -1.4% 41%

In Play -3.0% -2.8% 39%

On Base -0.4% -0.9% 31%

Hit -1.9% +0.5% 14%

Single -0.7% +0.1% 13%

2B / 3B 0.0% +0.3% 3%

Home Run -1.2% +0.2%

30.5% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. Yusei Kikuchi induces Standard Grounders at a 36.0% rate, which is 1.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.9% -0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.9% +1.6% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.1% +0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +3.1% -2.7% 9%

Rising Liner -1.5% -1.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.2% +0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% +0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% +1.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.6% +0.4% 3%

Pop up +0.5% -0.4%

13.2% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.1% lower than the league average. 28.0% of batted balls allowed by Yusei Kikuchi are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.0% -2.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +4.1% -1.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph +3.7% -1.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +4.2% +1.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -11.1% +3.7%

13.6% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. 12.7% of batted balls allowed by Yusei Kikuchi are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.9% +0.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% +1.7% 8%

1 to 6° -3.6% +0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -0.5% -3.4% 15%

19 to 28° +1.1% -0.3% 11%

29 to 38° +2.1% +1.3% 7%

39 to 50° +1.0% +0.9% 8%

Above 50° +3.1% -1.7%

Dylan Carlson has 6 plate appearances against Yusei Kikuchi in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	1	1	0	0	4	0	0.167
Expected From Contact →			0.39	0.23	0.03	0.12			0.065

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-13	Groundout			12%	88%
2024-08-13	Strikeout
2024-08-13	Strikeout
2024-08-02	Strikeout
2024-08-02	Strikeout
2024-08-02	Home Run	23%	3%		73%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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