Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Dylan Carlson

matchup for Martin Perez

93rd out of 436 (Best 22%)

Martin Perez

matchup for Dylan Carlson

53rd out of 567 (Best 10%)

Moderate advantage for Carlson

Dylan Carlson has a 34.0% chance of reaching base vs Martin Perez, which is 4.0% higher than Carlson's typical expectations, and 0.6% lower than batters facing Perez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.0%	23.8%	2.4%	4.7%	16.7%	10.2%	21.4%
Carlson	+4.0	+4.0	+0.4	+0.1	+3.4	+0.0	-8.0
Perez	-0.6	-1.5	-0.6	-0.6	-0.3	+0.9	+3.1

Dylan Carlson is slightly better vs left-handed pitching. Martin Perez is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Carlson has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Martin Perez throws a Sinker 34% of the time. Dylan Carlson has an F grade against left-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (L)

34%

Changeup (L)

25%

Cutter (L)

25%

4-Seam (L)

Curve (L)

22% of Martin Perez's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Fringe Miss 15%

+2%

Weak Challenge 9%

+0%

Meatball 6%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

62% of Martin Perez's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 38% higher than the MLB average. Dylan Carlson has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 62%

+38%

Extreme Break 34%

+19%

Offspeed (L) 25%

+13%

Fastball (L) 67%

+12%

Medium Velo 24%

+10%

15.6% of Dylan Carlson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. Martin Perez strikes out 11.9% of the batters he faces, which is 6.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +1.6% -6.1% 4%

Walk +1.4% -0.3% 41%

In Play -3.0% +6.4% 39%

On Base -0.4% +5.9% 31%

Hit -1.9% +6.3% 14%

Single -0.7% +3.5% 13%

2B / 3B 0.0% +3.3% 3%

Home Run -1.2% -0.6%

30.5% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.9% lower than the league average. Martin Perez induces Standard Grounders at a 38.9% rate, which is 4.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.9% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.9% +4.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.1% +0.3% 14%

Low Screamer +3.1% +0.4% 9%

Rising Liner -1.5% +0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.2% -0.6% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter -0.7% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.6% -3.7% 3%

Pop up +0.5% -0.9%

13.2% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.1% lower than the league average. 25.2% of batted balls allowed by Martin Perez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.0% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +4.1% +2.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +3.7% -1.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +4.2% -2.8% 24%

Above 100 mph -11.1% +0.9%

13.6% of Dylan Carlson's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. 10.3% of batted balls allowed by Martin Perez are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.9% +2.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.5% +1.3% 8%

1 to 6° -3.6% +0.6% 18%

7 to 18° -0.5% +0.2% 15%

19 to 28° +1.1% -1.4% 11%

29 to 38° +2.1% -1.1% 7%

39 to 50° +1.0% -0.3% 8%

Above 50° +3.1% -2.1%

Dylan Carlson has 9 plate appearances against Martin Perez in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 6 with a double and 3 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	6	2	0	1	1	0	3	0.333
Expected From Contact →			0.93	0.09	0.17	0.67			0.155

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-30	Groundout			4%	95%
2024-08-30	Flyout	9%	9%		82%
2024-08-30	Walk
2024-07-24	Walk
2024-07-24	Groundout			27%	73%
2024-07-24	Walk
2024-07-04	Single			28%	72%
2024-07-04	Double		7%	7%	86%
2024-07-04	Flyout		1%		99%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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