Matchup Machine

Jo Adell

Best 22% of matchups for Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo

Worst 47% of matchups for Jo Adell

Strong advantage for Lugo

- 7

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.9%	4.1%	9.3%	8.4%	37.3%
MLB (+/-)	+0.1	-0.2	-4.7	-1.3	+12.1
Adell	+0.2	+0.7	-0.4	-1.1	-2.7
Lugo	-0.1	-0.8	-4.0	+0.4	+11.9

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.9%

4.1%

9.3%

8.4%

37.3%

MLB (+/-)

+0.1

-0.2

-4.7

-1.3

+12.1

Adell

+0.2

+0.7

-0.4

-1.1

-2.7

Lugo

-0.1

-0.8

-4.0

+0.4

+11.9

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	1	0	2	0	.333
Expected From Contact →			0.35	0.00	0.00	0.35			.118

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-05	Strikeout
2023-07-05	Double			35%	65%
2023-07-05	Strikeout

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	54%	29	RHB vs RHP	54	48%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

54%

RHB vs RHP

48%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	56%	44	Fastball	61	52%
	25%	0	Breaking	64	43%	⭐
	11%	33	Offspeed	56	6%
			------------------
	59%	8	Four-Seam FB	63	32%	⭐
	34%	40	Curveball	66	30%
⭐	45%	102	Sinker	59	20%
	49%	-4	Slider	46	13%
	62%	17	Changeup	49	6%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

56%

Fastball

52%

25%

Breaking

43%

⭐

11%

Offspeed

------------------

59%

Four-Seam FB

32%

⭐

34%

Curveball

30%

⭐

45%

102

Sinker

20%

49%

-4

Slider

13%

62%

Changeup

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
83%	13	Away / Glove Side	63	15%	⭐
66%	22	Bottom of zone	53	14%
62%	34	Top of zone	64	11%
59%	19	In / Arm Side	54	9%
81%	25	Middle	49	7%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

83%

Away / Glove Side

15%

⭐

66%

Bottom of zone

14%

62%

Top of zone

11%

59%

In / Arm Side

81%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	45%	19	Away / Glove Side	50	35%
	49%	47	Below the zone	54	32%
	29%	53	Above the zone	71	21%
⭐⭐	32%	86	In / Arm Side	23	13%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

45%

Away / Glove Side

35%

49%

Below the zone

32%

29%

Above the zone

21%

⭐⭐

32%

In / Arm Side

13%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
52%	27	2 Strikes	66	30%
47%	61	Batter Behind	50	29%
71%	0	Batter Ahead	67	26%	⭐
48%	50	First Pitch	78	25%
64%	14	3 Balls	87	9%	⭐⭐
59%	19	Full Count	52	6%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

52%

2 Strikes

30%

47%

Batter Behind

29%

71%

Batter Ahead

26%

⭐

48%

First Pitch

25%

64%

3 Balls

⭐⭐

59%

Full Count