Matchup Machine

Jo Adell

Best 25% of matchups for Drew Smyly

Drew Smyly

Best 47% of matchups for Jo Adell

Strong advantage for Smyly

- 7

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.3%	3.1%	8.9%	11.1%	40.2%
MLB (+/-)	+0.5	-1.2	-5.1	+1.4	+15.0
Adell	+0.6	-0.3	-0.8	+1.6	+0.3
Smyly	+0.1	-1.1	-4.0	+0.3	+12.2

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.3%

3.1%

8.9%

11.1%

40.2%

MLB (+/-)

+0.5

-1.2

-5.1

+1.4

+15.0

Adell

+0.6

-0.3

-0.8

+1.6

+0.3

Smyly

+0.1

-1.1

-4.0

+0.3

+12.2

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	.333
Expected From Contact →			1.08	1.00	0.00	0.08			.359

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-06-08	Groundout			8%	92%
2023-06-08	Home Run	100%
2023-06-08	Strikeout

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	53%	18	RHB vs LHP	40	76%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

53%

RHB vs LHP

76%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	56%	44	Fastball	22	50%
	25%	0	Breaking	52	50%
			------------------
	27%	15	Knuckle-Curve	105	50%	⭐⭐
⭐	45%	102	Sinker	43	38%
	55%	26	Cutter	31	12%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

56%

Fastball

50%

25%

Breaking

50%

------------------

27%

Knuckle-Curve

105

50%

⭐⭐

⭐

45%

102

Sinker

38%

55%

Cutter

12%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
66%	22	Bottom of zone	28	11%
62%	34	Top of zone	38	10%
84%	25	Away / Arm Side	43	10%
66%	17	In / Glove Side	35	9%
92%	41	Middle	24	4%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

66%

Bottom of zone

11%

62%

Top of zone

10%

84%

Away / Arm Side

10%

66%

In / Glove Side

92%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
49%	47	Below the zone	80	35%
29%	53	Above the zone	13	27%
40%	13	In / Glove Side	41	26%
34%	19	Away / Arm Side	42	23%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

49%

Below the zone

35%

29%

Above the zone

27%

40%

In / Glove Side

26%

34%

Away / Arm Side

23%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
47%	61	Batter Behind	74	29%
52%	27	2 Strikes	51	28%
71%	0	Batter Ahead	10	27%
48%	50	First Pitch	48	26%
64%	14	3 Balls	-3	8%
59%	19	Full Count	19	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

47%

Batter Behind

29%

52%

2 Strikes

28%

71%

Batter Ahead

27%

48%

First Pitch

26%

64%

3 Balls

-3

59%

Full Count