Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Gavin Lux

matchup for Zac Gallen

221st out of 436 (Best 51%)

Zac Gallen

matchup for Gavin Lux

273rd out of 567 (Best 49%)

Leans in favor of Lux

Gavin Lux has a 32.3% chance of reaching base vs Zac Gallen, which is 1.5% higher than Lux's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Gallen.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.3%	19.9%	2.5%	5.3%	12.0%	12.4%	31.0%
Lux	+1.5	-0.7	+0.2	+0.4	-1.3	+2.2	+6.3
Gallen	-0.4	-1.1	-0.3	+0.2	-1.1	+0.7	+0.7

Gavin Lux is better vs right-handed pitching. Zac Gallen is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Lux has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Zac Gallen throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Gavin Lux has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

49%

Kn-Curve (R)

23%

Changeup (R)

14%

Cutter (R)

10%

22% of Zac Gallen's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Gavin Lux has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-2%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

25% of Zac Gallen's pitches are classified as Small Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Gavin Lux has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Small Break 25%

+16%

Extreme Drop 19%

+14%

Medium Fast Velo 24%

+8%

13.2% of Gavin Lux's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.4% lower than the league average. Zac Gallen strikes out 17.8% of the batters he faces, which is 3.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.4% +3.5% 3%

Walk +2.4% -0.3% 40%

In Play 0.0% -3.2% 39%

On Base +1.6% -1.8% 31%

Hit -0.8% -1.5% 14%

Single -0.3% -0.9% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% -0.5% 3%

Home Run -0.5% -0.1%

38.5% of Gavin Lux's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.1% higher than the league average. Zac Gallen induces Standard Grounders at a 32.4% rate, which is 2.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.6% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +4.1% -2.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +3.2% +1.6% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% +1.7% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% -1.4% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.4% +0.9% 3%

Likely Homer -1.3% -0.2% 1%

No Doubter -0.9% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.0% +0.8% 3%

Pop up +0.7% -1.3%

22.1% of Gavin Lux's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% lower than the league average. 26.3% of batted balls allowed by Zac Gallen are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.0% -0.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.1% -1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.9% +0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +3.4% +0.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.2% +2.0%

10.8% of Gavin Lux's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 10.6% of batted balls allowed by Zac Gallen are hit at this angle, which is 0.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.3% -0.9% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.4% +0.6% 8%

1 to 6° +2.3% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -3.5% +1.0% 15%

19 to 28° -0.6% +0.9% 11%

29 to 38° -0.6% -0.9% 7%

39 to 50° -3.2% +1.1% 8%

Above 50° -0.1% -1.1%

Gavin Lux has 10 plate appearances against Zac Gallen in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 10 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	10	10	1	0	1	0	4	0	0.100
Expected From Contact →			3.10	0.05	1.62	1.43			0.310

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-30	Double		94%	5%
2024-08-30	Lineout	5%	62%	3%	29%
2024-08-30	Strikeout
2024-07-04	Lineout		2%	17%	82%
2024-07-04	Lineout			22%	77%
2022-09-22	Strikeout
2022-09-22	Strikeout
2022-09-22	Strikeout
2022-04-27	Lineout		3%	77%	20%
2022-04-27	Groundout			19%	81%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe