Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Alex Kirilloff

matchup for Aaron Nola

80th out of 436 (Best 19%)

Aaron Nola

matchup for Alex Kirilloff

429th out of 567 (Worst 25%)

Strong advantage for Nola

Alex Kirilloff has a 26.0% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Nola, which is 2.5% lower than Kirilloff's typical expectations, and 3.5% lower than batters facing Nola.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	26.0%	19.8%	3.2%	5.8%	10.7%	6.2%	36.5%
Kirilloff	-2.5	-1.0	+0.1	+1.1	-2.1	-1.6	+7.6
Nola	-3.5	-2.6	+0.2	-0.4	-2.4	-0.9	+5.6

Alex Kirilloff is better vs right-handed pitching. Aaron Nola is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Kirilloff has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Nola throws a Kn-Curve 30% of the time. Alex Kirilloff hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Kn-Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

30%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

12%

Cutter (R)

8% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Alex Kirilloff has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

26% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Alex Kirilloff has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 26%

+21%

Extreme Slow Velo 23%

+18%

Large Break 22%

+18%

15.9% of Alex Kirilloff's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. Aaron Nola strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.1% +6.3% 4%

Walk +0.6% -2.8% 41%

In Play -2.7% -3.5% 39%

On Base -2.6% -4.8% 31%

Hit -3.2% -2.0% 14%

Single -2.4% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B -1.8% -0.7% 3%

Home Run +1.0% -0.5%

40.7% of Alex Kirilloff's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.3% higher than the league average. Aaron Nola induces Standard Grounders at a 37.3% rate, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +6.3% +2.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.7% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -0.5% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.5% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +2.3% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.1% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.3% -0.4% 3%

Pop up -2.0% -0.7%

21.5% of Alex Kirilloff's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. 23.6% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +4.2% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.7% -0.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% +2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.1% -1.9% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.8% -0.7%

20.5% of Alex Kirilloff's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 9.1% higher than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%