Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Alex Kirilloff

matchup for Marcus Stroman

163rd out of 436 (Best 38%)

Marcus Stroman

matchup for Alex Kirilloff

14th out of 567 (Best 3%)

Extreme advantage for Kirilloff

Alex Kirilloff has a 35.5% chance of reaching base vs Marcus Stroman, which is 7.0% higher than Kirilloff's typical expectations, and 2.1% lower than batters facing Stroman.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	35.5%	28.3%	3.4%	6.0%	18.9%	7.2%	21.6%
Kirilloff	+7.0	+7.6	+0.3	+1.2	+6.1	-0.6	-7.3
Stroman	-2.1	-0.6	+0.7	+0.2	-1.4	-1.5	+3.5

Alex Kirilloff is better vs right-handed pitching. Marcus Stroman is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Kirilloff has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Marcus Stroman throws a Sinker 40% of the time. Alex Kirilloff has an A+ grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

40%

Slider (R)

18%

Cutter (R)

15%

Splitter (R)

11%

Curve (R)

10%

4-Seam (R)

22% of Marcus Stroman's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Alex Kirilloff has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+3%

Weak Challenge 11%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

37% of Marcus Stroman's pitches are classified as Small Drop, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Alex Kirilloff has a D- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Small Drop 37%

+24%

Medium Velo 29%

+18%

15.9% of Alex Kirilloff's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% higher than the league average. Marcus Stroman strikes out 13.5% of the batters he faces, which is 3.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +2.1% -3.1% 4%

Walk +0.6% -0.8% 41%

In Play -2.7% +3.9% 39%

On Base -2.6% +3.0% 31%

Hit -3.2% +3.8% 14%

Single -2.4% +2.4% 13%

2B / 3B -1.8% +2.4% 3%

Home Run +1.0% -1.1%

40.7% of Alex Kirilloff's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 6.3% higher than the league average. Marcus Stroman induces Standard Grounders at a 43.6% rate, which is 9.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +6.3% +9.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.7% +4.1% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -1.9% 9%

Rising Liner -0.5% +0.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.5% -1.3% 3%

Likely Homer +2.3% -1.4% 1%

No Doubter +0.1% -0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.3% -6.1% 3%

Pop up -2.0% -1.9%

21.5% of Alex Kirilloff's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. 28.8% of batted balls allowed by Marcus Stroman are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +4.2% -1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.7% +0.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.2% -2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.1% -1.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.8% +4.4%

20.5% of Alex Kirilloff's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 9.1% higher than the league average. 7.4% of batted balls allowed by Marcus Stroman are hit at this angle, which is 4.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +8.0% +7.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.6% +3.2% 8%

1 to 6° -4.3% +2.6% 18%

7 to 18° -2.3% +0.5% 15%

19 to 28° -3.9% -2.6% 11%

29 to 38° +9.1% -4.0% 7%

39 to 50° -1.6% -2.6% 8%

Above 50° -3.5% -4.4%

Alex Kirilloff has 7 plate appearances against Marcus Stroman in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 6 with a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	7	6	2	0	1	1	2	1	0.333
Expected From Contact →			1.21	0.03	0.30	0.88			0.201

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-06	Flyout	3%	2%		96%
2024-06-06	Double		13%	5%	82%
2024-06-06	Strikeout
2024-05-15	Walk
2024-05-15	Lineout		14%		84%
2023-05-14	Strikeout
2023-05-14	Single		1%	82%	17%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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